Walnuts: cautious estimate for new crop
September 23, 2026 at 11:29 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Caution prevails
In the Tree Nuts Annual for Chile the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has issued a rather cautious production estimate for MY 2026/2027, which starts in January 2027. Although the areas planted and harvested are expected to decline by 3%, favourable climatic and soil conditions should compensate for this. As wet winter conditions prevailed in the central and north-central parts of the country there will be enough water available for irrigation and soil conditions should be better than in 2025/2026. Expectation is that production will climb by 3% to 170,000 mt.
FAS, however, also highlights that this projection has been issued with caution. Issue is that a strong El Niño may very well bring heavy rain, frost and abnormal temperatures during flowering and pollination in spring in September and October 2026. This may very well help diseases, particularly the walnut blight, to spread. FAS has consequently refrained from issuing a more optimistic estimate and may even have to cut the current one.
Production to stabilise at lower levels
By contrast, the 165,000 mt produced in 2025/2026 stands higher than the initially projected 150,500 mt. Issue is that losses during flowering and pollination were not as bad as expected. The revised estimate also stands in line with the most recent International and Dried Fruit Council estimate issued in July, which marks a 10% reduction on the bumper crop of 182,000 mt harvested in 2024/2025.
Another important aspect is that the production area has declined in the past three years. Main driver are market conditions such as lower international prices, higher costs and urban development along with the fact that other crops such as cherries, lemons and mandarins are more attractive. On top of this, production is moving further south, which is more susceptible to humidity-related disease and frost. Expectation is that production will stabilise at a lower level in future. This will weigh Chile’s standing in the export market.
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Walnuts, production, supply and distribution, Chile |
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|
Inshell basis |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
Diff. |
|
Area planted (ha) |
41,722 |
40,323 |
-3.4% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
40,255 |
38,900 |
-3.4% |
|
Bearing trees (1,000 trees) |
7,200 |
6,950 |
-3.5% |
|
Non-bearing trees (1,000 trees) |
2,350 |
2,350 |
0.0% |
|
Total trees (1,000 trees) |
9,550 |
9,300 |
-2.6% |
|
Beginning stocks (mt) |
3,175 |
3,625 |
14.2% |
|
Production (mt) |
165,000 |
170,000 |
3.0% |
|
Imports (mt) |
250 |
225 |
-10.0% |
|
Total supply (mt) |
168,425 |
173,850 |
3.2% |
|
Exports (mt) |
160,000 |
165,000 |
3.1% |
|
Domestic consumption |
4,800 |
4,850 |
1.0% |
|
Ending stocks (mt) |
3,625 |
4,000 |
10.3% |
|
Total distribution (mt) |
168,425 |
173,850 |
3.2% |
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USDA FAS, 18/09/26 |
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