Walnuts: global market in upheaval
February 15, 2022 at 4:28 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
US walnut production likely to decline
A restructuring is currently taking place in the global walnut market. While the US remains the largest exporter, new players such as China, Ukraine and Chile are becoming increasingly important. As Rabobank experts among others report, the EU and Turkey remain the main import markets with steady demand, while buying interest from the United Arab Emirates and India continues to rise. After a record crop last season, experts expect US walnut production to decline in the 2021/22 season as trees are in a recovery phase and yields are therefore expected to be lower.
Rising production costs become a problem
According to Rabobank, current prices are neither a sufficient incentive to increase acreage nor a sufficient deterrent to reduce it. One problem is the rising production costs, which are putting pressure on margins. On the European spot market there have been noticeable price reductions in the course of the past weeks; Chandler LHP, 20% from the USA currently cost EUR 5.35/kg FCA Spain and are thus EUR 0.85/kg below last week's price.
|
Walnuts |
|
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
|
Chandler, ELHP 80%, Chile, manually opened |
7.75 |
|
Chandler, LHP 20%, USA |
5.35 |
|
Chandler, inshell, 30-32 mm, Chile |
2.55 |
|
Howard, inshell, jumbo, USA |
2.25 |
|
Type 185, shelled, ELHP 90%, China |
5.90 |
|
80% white halves, Moldova |
7.25 |
|
White pieces, Moldova |
6.15 |
|
40% light halves, Ukraine |
6.15 |
|
FCA Spain |
|
US exports down by almost a third
California Walnuts, meanwhile, has released updated figures for US walnut shipments. From the start of the season in September 2021 to the end of January, the country delivered a total of 164,095 mt of shelled and unshelled walnuts domestically and overseas, a 30% decline from the 235,042 mt shipped in the same period last year. The declines to Africa and the Middle East (-55%) and to Asia and Oceania (-42%) are particularly evident. Overall, no increase was achieved for any major export destination, with the exception of exports of shelled walnuts to Europe, which increased by 9%.
|
US walnut shipments, in mt |
|||
|
Destination |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
Diff. |
|
Europe |
55,882 |
53,977 |
-3% |
|
Asia/Pacific Rim |
42,072 |
24,507 |
-42% |
|
Africa/Middle East |
82,368 |
37,165 |
-55% |
|
Central/South America |
180 |
110 |
-39% |
|
North America |
51,708 |
46,821 |
-9% |
|
Others |
2,832 |
1,516 |
-46% |
|
Total |
235,042 |
164,095 |
-30% |
|
California Walnuts; since the start of the season |
|||
Trade in Eastern Europe stable for the time being
Market players are looking anxiously to Eastern Europe, where tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated alarmingly in recent weeks. Contrary to their fears, however, trading seems to be proceeding in an orderly fashion for the time being. Some traders had speculated on price cuts that would encourage buyers to buy despite the crisis, but these have not yet materialised. In general, the market is rather quiet. The same applies to China, where stable prices and little activity are reported.
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