Walnuts: punitive fees instead of customs duties
July 16, 2025 at 4:53 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Lower yields and labour shortages in China
Sandstorms and late spring frosts in China's northern walnut-growing regions mean that a decline in production is to be expected there. In contrast, rainfall is favouring walnut development in the southern Chinese province of Yunnan. Good yields were achieved in the growing regions in 2024. In May, the crop estimate was still 1.5 million mt of in-shell walnuts, as in the previous year, but this could still change.
However, according to market players, a third of the crop was lost due to the severe labour shortage, which had a negative impact on quality. The outlook for an improvement in the situation this year remains good, but the fact that there may not be enough harvest workers this year remains a critical factor.
|
Walnuts, China |
|
|
Type |
USD/mt |
|
Kernels, LP |
4,040 |
|
Kernels, 80% LH, Yunnan |
4,725 |
|
CFR Hamburg, 10 kg package |
|
Trade agreement delays customs clearance
In anticipation of a trade agreement between the US and India, customs clearance for dried fruit and nuts, including almonds and walnuts, is being delayed. India currently imposes import duties of 100% on US walnuts, both shelled and unshelled. There is a chance that these duties will be reduced to 30%. According to experts, for some Indian importers, the penalties for delayed customs clearance are cheaper than the financial loss they would incur if the duties were reduced to the desired level after they had already cleared their goods through customs. With the trade agreement coming into force, India could consolidate its position as one of the most important walnut importers for the US market.
The Californian walnut harvest is set to begin in September this year. Production is currently estimated at 590,000-635,000 mt of in-shell walnuts, compared to just 542,700 mt last year. These are therefore ideal conditions for an increase in shipments to India.
US exports down 35%
In June 2025, the USA exported 9,187 mt of shelled and unshelled walnuts, compared to 11,850 mt in the same month last year. Domestic deliveries also fell by 29% to 6,496 mt. A total of 15,683 mt of walnuts were shipped domestically and overseas – a decline of 25% compared to the same month last year. The main buyers were Turkey (+115% to 2,502 mt) and Germany (+19% to 1,521 mt), followed by Japan (-27% to 1,004 mt) and Korea (-28% to 759 mt).
Looking at the season as a whole, US walnut shipments have also fallen significantly behind. Between September 2024 and June 2025, a total of 248,538 mt of shelled and unshelled walnuts were delivered domestically and overseas, representing a decline of 35.3%. Not only did exports fall by a whopping 36% to 176,946 mt, but domestic shipments also lagged around 28% behind the previous year's result at 76,414 mt. In addition to the domestic market, a large proportion of shipments go to Europe, where Germany (+9.2% to 35,950 mt), Italy (-20.6% to 18,055 mt) and Spain (-11.8% to 17,893 mt) are among the most important customers. However, countries such as Japan (-7.0% to 15,266 mt), Turkey (-75.2% to 14,386 mt) and India (+21.3% to 13,653 mt) also purchase large quantities of walnuts from the USA.
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US walnut shipments, domestic and overseas, in mt |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
106,169 |
76,414 |
-28.0% |
|
Germany |
32,913 |
35,950 |
9.2% |
|
Italy |
22,733 |
18,055 |
-20.6% |
|
Spain |
20,292 |
17,893 |
-11.8% |
|
Japan |
16,407 |
15,266 |
-7.0% |
|
Turkey |
58,022 |
14,386 |
-75.2% |
|
India |
11,260 |
13,653 |
21.3% |
|
Korea |
15,544 |
13,609 |
-12.4% |
|
Netherlands |
10,721 |
8,392 |
-21.7% |
|
Canada |
6,796 |
6,174 |
-9.2% |
|
Others |
83,563 |
28,747 |
-65.6% |
|
Total |
384,420 |
248,538 |
-35.3% |
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California Walnuts; 01/09-30/06; shelled and in-shell |
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