Walnuts: sharp rise in demand in the Middle East and Africa
August 19, 2026 at 12:11 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Middle East/Africa drives demand for US inshells
US in-shell shipments have exploded this season as the Monthly Shipment Report issued by the California Walnut Board for July shows. Total shipments have nearly doubled on last year with domestic shipments 41% up and exports more than twice as high.
Turkey tops the chart with an impressive three-digit rise. Shipments to the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Lebanon along with Iraq and Morocco are also showing sharp three- and even four-digit increases. At 190.9 million pounds the subtotal shipments to the Middle East/Africa, stand more than four times higher than the 45.5 million pounds recorded in same period in 2024/2025. In fact, the region accounts for 66% of the entire export volume.
The 15% rise in shipments to Italy is rather unexciting in comparison. Exports to Spain have even declined by 13%. Europe is a mixed bag with subtotal shipments 6% down at 54.6 million pounds on last year’s 58 million pounds.
Exports to India have also declined by 10%. By contrast, Vietnam is displaying a sharp rise. Subtotal shipments to Asia/Pacific Rim have climbed by 6% to 38.8 million pounds.
|
US walnut shipments, inshell (1,000 pounds) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Turkey |
34,358 |
129,006 |
275.5% |
|
Italy |
33,267 |
38,172 |
14.7% |
|
India |
30,695 |
27,681 |
-9.8% |
|
UAE |
4,182 |
18,712 |
347.4% |
|
USA domestic |
10,624 |
14,958 |
40.8% |
|
Algeria |
1,113 |
12,565 |
1,029.2% |
|
Spain |
10,080 |
8,735 |
-13.4% |
|
Lebanon |
2,263 |
8,225 |
263.4% |
|
Iraq |
220 |
7,091 |
3,116.7% |
|
Morocco |
1,411 |
6,700 |
374.9% |
|
Vietnam |
3,164 |
6,215 |
96.4% |
|
Others |
21,372 |
26,700 |
24.9% |
|
Export Total |
142,125 |
289,802 |
103.9% |
|
Grand Total |
152,749 |
304,760 |
99.5% |
|
California Walnut Board, 01/09-31/07 |
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Moderate rise for US kernels
Kernel shipments have also risen, but to a more moderate degree. Grand total shipments stand 15% higher than last year, domestic shipments 7% higher and exports 20% higher. Leading export destination Germany is sporting a 31% rise and a similar trend can be observed for other destinations in Europe such as Spain, the Netherlands and UK as well as for Italy, which is showing the largest increase of 46%. At 184.2 million pounds the subtotal shipments to Europe range 25% higher than the 147.9 million pounds recorded in the same period in 2025/2025.
Exports to Japan stand 5% higher but have declined by 8% to South Korea. Australia is sporting a 26% rise. Subtotal shipments to Asia/Pacific Rim have climbed by 5%, from 83.5 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 87.3 million pounds in 2025/2026.
With a 14% rise in shipments Israel features as the only destination in the Middle East/Africa in amongst the top ten destinations for US walnut kernels. Subtotal shipments to the region have, in fact, surged by 75% to 21.8 million pounds as compared with the 12.5 million pounds witnessed in the same period in 2024/2025.
|
US walnut shipments, kernels (1,000 pounds) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
USA domestic |
173,433 |
185,496 |
6.7% |
|
Germany |
69,188 |
90,897 |
31.4% |
|
Japan |
34,699 |
36,440 |
5.0% |
|
Spain |
30,044 |
35,133 |
16.9% |
|
Korea |
30,036 |
27,756 |
-7.6% |
|
Netherlands |
16,805 |
19,322 |
15.0% |
|
UK |
16,933 |
17,896 |
16.9% |
|
Canada |
13,454 |
14,522 |
7.9% |
|
Italy |
6,935 |
10,104 |
45.7% |
|
Israel |
7,624 |
8,681 |
13.9% |
|
Australia |
6,732 |
8,476 |
25.9% |
|
Others |
31,912 |
46,923 |
47.0% |
|
Export Total |
264,362 |
316,150 |
19.6% |
|
Grand Total |
437,795 |
501,646 |
14.6% |
|
California Walnut Board, 01/09-31/07 |
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Global production to range a bit higher in 2026/2027
As the Nutfruit Magazine issued by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council in July illustrates global in-shell basis walnut production is projected 3% higher than in 2025/2026 at 2.9 million mt (6.4 billion pounds). Total supply will also climb by 6% from 2.9 million mt (6.4 billion pounds) in 2024/2025 to 3.1 million mt (6.8 billion pounds) in 2026/2027. Expectation is also that global kernel basis production will rise by 2%, from 1.2 million mt (2.7 billion pounds) in 2025/2026 to 1.3 million mt (2.8 billion pounds) in 2026/2027 and total kernel basis supply by 6% to 1.3 million mt (2.8 billion pounds).
China’s output should rise by 7% to a stunning 1.6 million mt (3.5 billion pounds). Prices have inched up quite a bit for shipments to Europe since last week.
|
Walnut kernels, China |
|
|
Variety |
USD/mt |
|
ELH 80%, XIN2 |
5,160 |
|
ELH 90%, 185 |
4,950 |
|
CFR EMP, 21.5 mt/40 Reefer |
|
Projections for the US stand 6% lower at 689,500 mt (1.5 billion pounds). US weather conditions were, however, perfect in May and in June. Although Chile is confronted with a 10% decline in production to 165,000 mt (36.4 million pounds) the quality is good as conditions during the harvest were favourable.
|
Global walnut production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
Diff. |
|
China |
1,500,000 |
1,600,000 |
6.7% |
|
USA |
734,300 |
689,500 |
-6.1% |
|
Chile |
182,800 |
165,000 |
-9.7% |
|
Ukraine |
89,700 |
95,000 |
5.9% |
|
Turkey |
45,000 |
60,000 |
33.3% |
|
Romania |
42,400 |
48,000 |
13.2% |
|
France |
35,000 |
40,000 |
14.3% |
|
Iran |
38,700 |
37,600 |
-2.8% |
|
India |
28,000 |
30,000 |
7.1% |
|
Argentina |
22,000 |
25,500 |
15.9% |
|
Spain |
17,000 |
20,000 |
17.6% |
|
Moldova |
18,400 |
19,500 |
6.0% |
|
Portugal |
12,000 |
13,000 |
8.3% |
|
Italy |
16,000 |
12,800 |
-20.0% |
|
Hungary |
11,900 |
12,100 |
1.7% |
|
Others |
25,500 |
23,600 |
-7.5% |
|
Total |
2,818,700 |
2,891,600 |
2.6% |
|
California Walnut Board and Commission, Chilenut, Walnut Growers Association of Türkiye, Portugal Nuts, and other INC sources |
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