Almonds: no big surprises

Shipments 3% down on last year

Net shipments stood at 219.9 million pounds in April, 9% lower than the 241.1 million pounds shipped in the same month last year. While domestic shipments dipped by 1% to 52.62 million pounds as compared with the 53.30 million pounds registered in April 2025, exports fell by 11% from last year’s April record of 187.81 million pounds to 167.27 million pounds last month.

At 1.99 billion pounds total year-to-date shipments stand 3% lower than last year. While domestic shipments have declined by 14% exports range 1% higher. Exports to India, as leading destination, have declined by 8% this year so far. As Select Harvest USA explains this is due to the fact that importers have hit the pause button. Problem are the weather-related quality issues in Australia, along with a weakening rupee and rising shipping and fuel costs due to the war in the Middle East. As local supplies will not last too long imports will, however, need to resume soon.

By contrast, exports to Spain have risen by 17%. Shipment to other Western European destinations are showing more moderate gains of 9% and 4% respectively in Italy and Germany and have slumped by 27% in the Netherlands. At 479.99 million pounds exports to Western Europe range 3% higher than last year’s 466.62 million pounds.

Turkey has become a trading hub in the Middle East with shipments 35% up on last year. Contrary to this, the war has disrupted exports to the United Arab Emirates with shipments 21% down on last year and witnessing a standstill in April. At 276.31 million pounds total shipments to the Middle East are, in fact, flat on last year’s 275.54 million pounds.

Shipments to Morocco have risen by 38%. Total exports to North Africa have also climbed by 25% to 97.84 million pounds as compared with last year’s 78,12 million pounds.

Will China return?

Vietnam has also realised a 46% rise in imports from California this year. Total exports to Southeast Asia as a region have, in fact, risen by 38% from 75.9 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 104.84 million pounds in 2025/2026. Reason is that China has shifted its supply chain to indirect imports form Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Yet, the quality issues in Australia may prompt some buyers in China to switch to direct imports from California with Select Harvest USA reporting stronger interest for inshell almonds. The bilateral trade talks between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping may also help to improve relations between the two countries and perhaps encourage China to directly import more almonds from California again - at the expense of the intermediary countries in Southeast Asia.

Subjective estimate in line with industry expectations

At 3.12 billion pounds total supplies range 1% lower than last year’s 3.16 billion pounds. Uncommitted inventories stand 4% higher than last year’s 1.11 billion pounds at 605,81 billion pounds. Crop receipts reached 2.69 billion pounds as of 30 April, which is 1% lower than last year’s 2.7 billion pounds.

Expectation is that the 2026 crop will be similar in size to the current crop. In the crop estimate issued in May Blue Diamond Growers anticipate a crop size of 2.68-2.72 billion pounds. The world’s largest almond handler thereby highlights that low returns, frequently below production costs, have forced growers to cut back on pest management and nutrition in the past four to five years. On top of this, growers are confronted with higher input costs this year due to the war in the Middle East with fuel costs expected to rise by 50%, fertiliser costs by 30% and energy costs rising steadily. Water allocations will also remain low and conditions before during and after bloom have not been that ideal.

In addition, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has released the Subjective Estimate, which is roughly in line with industry expectations. While LandIQ anticipates a 1% drop in bearing acres to 1.39 million, Nass has issued a similar figure and anticipates a production of 2.7 billion pounds, which is nominally down on last year’s 2.71-billion-pound crop.

View more
- price chart, almonds, Mamra, Iran
- price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
- price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
- more price charts