Almonds: challenging season ahead

Exports pick up a bit

At 214.4 million pounds total monthly shipments stood 3% higher than the 211.8 million pounds registered in May last year. While monthly exports rose by 5% on the 160.7 million ponds recorded in May 2025 to 169.1 million pounds, domestic shipments declined by 6% from 51 million pounds in May 2025 to 48.3 million pounds in May 2026.

Grand total shipments for the season have dipped by 2% with domestic shipments falling by 14% but exports rising a bit by 2%. Exports to India as the most important destination have come down by 9%. Shipments to Asia and the Pacific as a region have also dipped by 3%, from 635.9 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 615.4 million pounds in 2025/2026. While shipments to all other parts of Asia have declined, Southeast Asia is a noted exception as exports to here have surged by 33% on last year’s 86.4 million pounds to 114.6 million pounds. Reason is that China has redirected its supply chain towards neighbouring countries such as Vietnam, to where exports have risen by 36%.

Spain is sporting a 15% rise in shipments. Other European destinations are showing mixed trends. Exports to the Netherlands have slumped by 42%, whereas shipments to Italy and Germany are up. At 557.4 million pounds subtotal shipments to Europe as a whole are 5% up on last year’s 550.7 million pounds.

Exports to Turkey have risen by an impressive 42%. By contrast, shipments to the United Arab Emirates stand 27% lower than last year with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. Morocco has witnessed a sharp 47% rise. Subtotal shipments to the Middle East and Africa stand at 417.3 million pounds, which is 6% higher than the 393.2 million pounds registered one year ago.

What to look out for

As Select Harvest report, the following will impact the market in the next few months:

• the development of an El Niño weather pattern
• crop speculations without an Objective Measurement Report
• inventories in the transition period
• demand patterns

Meteorologists around the world are warning of a particularly strong El Niño, that should cause more rain in southern California, hot summer weather and increased humidity in summer. Excessive heat will stress the trees and affect kernel growth. Additional precipitation and humid conditions may pose challenges for pest control and harvesting. Input costs may, therefore, very well be higher.

As the Almond Board of California is no longer participating in the Objective Measurement Report, which is usually issued in July, crop size speculations will circulate without an authoritative reference. Buyers and sellers will have to, in effect, rely more strongly on early estimates that predict a crop size of around 2.7 billion pounds. Although the Objective Measurement Report was also not quite as reliable last year, the market will now have to gauge any changes without a benchmark.

Handlers appear to be targeting a comfortable carry-over supply exceeding 500,000 pounds. Shipments are usually slower in June and July with attention shifting to the new crop. As suppliers will not be that eager to sell the market should be firm in the transition period.

With total committed shipments ranging 9% higher than last year at 92 million pounds demand has bounced back to average values. In India, demand for Diwali will start to pick up in a few months’ time. Yet, as Diwali 2027 will be celebrated one month early in October, it is very well possible that the 2026/2027 crop will need to cover two festive seasons. Developments in the Strait of Hormuz will also shape demand patterns in the Middle East and in Pakistan, which mainly relied on Dubai as a trading hub but is currently importing more almonds directly from California. Another issue to look out for are pistachio prices, which are on the rise as shipments from Iran have been disrupted due to the war and crop sizes will be much smaller in 2026/2027. This may prompt buyers to switch to cheaper alternatives such as almonds.

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