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Almonds: countdown is on

June 13, 2023 at 10:56 AM , Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO. Although US almond shipments flatlined, the industry is rather optimistic. With less than two months to go until the new season starts the countdown is on for almonds.

24% slump in shipments

May shipments range 24% lower than last year. They have, in fact, declined from 257 million lbs in 2021/2022 to 196 million lbs in 2022/2023 as California Almonds illustrate in the most recent position report. Domestic shipments thereby declined by 15% to 55 million lbs and exports by 27% to 193 million lbs. Total shipments for the season have flatlined at 2.19 billion lbs. While domestic shipments range 7% lower at 599 million lbs, exports have risen by 3% to 1.59 million lbs. Shipments to most leading export destinations have either declined or are relatively flat, whereas China/Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey are the noted exceptions as shipments to these destinations have risen sharply.

US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs

Destination

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

USA

643,545

598,985

-7.0%

India

300,195

291,361

-3.0%

Spain

184,591

165,635

-10.3%

China/Hong Kong

111,125

132,020

18.8%

UAE

98,222

112,022

14.0%

Germany

92,859

93,752

0.9%

Netherlands

85,150

73,787

-13.4%

Italy

71,628

73,180

2.1%

Japan

82,059

71,924

-12.4%

Turkey

55,918

67,675

21.0%

Others

460,638

511,001

10.9%

Total

2,185,930

2,191,342

0.2%

California almonds, 01/08-31/05
Shelled and inshell

Next season to be much easier

Expectation is that total shipments will reach a similar level of around 2.634 billion lbs as last year at the end of the season. Crop receipts, however, range 12% lower than last year so far at 2.5 billion lbs, which comes very close to the forecast 2.6 billion lbs. Carryout supplies should therefore range lower than last year at 750 million lbs, which is welcome news for the industry as last year’s record supplies presented challenges for shipping. Total supplies should reach 3.2 billion lbs in 2023/2024 if the Subjective Estimate for the new crop turns out to be correct.

With California still experiencing spring-like weather conditions in June, the harvest may very well be delayed. Fortunately, the current conditions are good for the crop and the trees appear to be in good shape. Attention has now turned on the Objective Estimate, which will be issued on 7 July. After sales recently slowed, trading picked up again last week and the market gained some support. At 677 million lbs uncommitted inventories, however, still range unusually high and suppliers will need to offer more attractive prices if they wish to sell their supplies before the arrival of the new crop in August.

 

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