Almonds: difficult transition
September 16, 2024 at 11:02 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
US exports slump
US almond shipments started off very slow in the first month of the season. At 168 million pounds total US almond shipments slipped by a stunning 20% in August as compared with last year. While domestic shipments have maintained their ground at 62 million pounds, exports are 29% down at 106 million pounds. Silver lining, however, is India. Exports to here stand 24% higher and have nearly approached 28 million pounds. Not only are Indian importers getting ready for Diwali, which will be celebrated between 29 October and 3 November this year, but shipments also rebounded after limited supplies and logistic constraints slowed shipments in July. Although the local market is well supplied, buying is expected to continue as volumes are still required to meet the festival demand.
Despite shipments to Western Europe witnessing sharp declines, industry representatives are far from worried about this. Opinion is that European buyers had sufficient stocks at hand to cover immediate needs, which enables them to wait and see how the new crop plays out. Shipments to Japan and South Korea have also taken a 22% hit. Issue is that movements to these destinations are largely determined by the availability of preferred varieties.
|
US almond shipments (1,000 lbs) |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
61,417 |
62,050 |
1.0% |
|
India |
22,473 |
27,946 |
24.3% |
|
Spain |
17,895 |
10,050 |
-43.8% |
|
Netherlands |
7,598 |
7,315 |
-3.7% |
|
Germany |
14,191 |
6,278 |
-55.8% |
|
Italy |
8,361 |
5,871 |
-29.8% |
|
Canada |
6,058 |
5,464 |
-9.8% |
|
UAE |
11,210 |
4,561 |
-59.3% |
|
Japan |
5,381 |
4,197 |
-22.0% |
|
Vietnam |
2,247 |
3,847 |
71.2% |
|
South Korea |
4,277 |
3,342 |
-21.9% |
|
Others |
60,993 |
27,362 |
-55.2% |
|
Total |
212,012 |
168,283 |
-20.6% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/08 |
|||
Tight transition but good harvest conditions
In addition, the Almond Board of California has calculated the carry-in inventory for 2024/2025 at 502.65 million pounds, thereby highlighting that the lost and exempt rate stands at 2.11%, which is up on the five-year moving average of 1.86%. This volume is also 37% less than last year’s 800 million pounds. Sellers were also not quite as keen to issue offers for prompt shipments in August, which is another factor that weighed on exports.
Yet, crop receipts stand 314% higher at 290 million than last year, which clearly indicates that the crop is coming in much earlier. Harvest reports are highly encouraging so far as weather conditions are favourable for drying and rain should not become an issue this year. Sales should pick up as soon as the crop has been processed and is ready to ship. Only downside is that hullers are stating that the kernel size is a bit smaller than average.
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