Almonds: discrepancies in crop estimates
November 12, 2025 at 4:56 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Australia's crop better than expected
According to the latest report from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, the global almond crop (shelled) totals 1.648 million mt, which represents a 1.6% increase over last year. The official forecasts for the Californian crop (3 billion lbs or 1.36 million mt) were viewed with great scepticism by market players, while the unofficial consensus is 2.55-2.80 billion lbs or 1.16-1.27 million mt. In its overview, the INC uses the average value of 1.226 million. The reason for this difference from the official estimate is reports of lower yields and smaller kernels.
For Australia, the INC report still estimates a crop of 155,500 mt, and experts have even assumed in the meantime that the final result could be significantly lower. On 11 November, Australian Almonds announced its final estimate for the 2025 almond crop. At 155,697 mt, this is actually slightly above the original estimate, but still noticeably below last year's record result.
According to the INC, Spain's almond crop is expected to reach 105,000 mt, as in the previous year, although Spanish authorities anticipate a significantly better result. With regard to the crop in the rest of the Iberian Peninsula, however, expectations were once again confirmed, as heavy rainfall in Portugal resulted in considerable yield losses.
|
Almond production, shelled, in mt |
|||
|
Origin |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
1,192,700 |
1,225,800 |
2.8% |
|
Australia |
163,148 |
155,500 |
-4.7% |
|
Spain |
105,000 |
105,000 |
0.0% |
|
Turkey |
30,000 |
35,000 |
16.7% |
|
Italy |
21,000 |
22,400 |
6.7% |
|
Morocco |
18,000 |
18,100 |
0.6% |
|
China |
16,800 |
17,300 |
3.0% |
|
Portugal |
27,300 |
15,000 |
-45.1% |
|
Tunisia |
12,000 |
13,500 |
12.5% |
|
Chile |
8,000 |
12,800 |
60.0% |
|
Iran |
6,000 |
6,100 |
1.7% |
|
Greece |
6,000 |
5,000 |
-16.7% |
|
Others |
16,200 |
16,500 |
1.9% |
|
Total |
1,622,148 |
1,648,000 |
1.6% |
|
Quelle: INC, November 2025 |
|||
Australian exports down by 27%
By the end of August, Australian almond exports were still showing slight growth compared to last year. However, this is no longer the case for September shipments. At 15,764 mt (-27% year-on-year), this month only achieved the third-best export figure of the current season, whereas exports in September 2024, at 21,538 mt, were not only by far the best figure of the past season, but also set a new monthly record overall. With the exception of China (+3.5% to 11,042 mt), shipments to the main customer countries remained down year-on-year.
A total of 105,638 mt of shelled and unshelled almonds have been shipped domestically and overseas since the beginning of this season, which is 4.6% less than last year at this time. Domestic demand fell by 3.6% to 14,091 mt and exports by as much as 4.7% to 91,547 mt. At 54,189 mt, almost 60% of Australian almond exports go to China, followed by India (14.7%), Turkey (6.3%), Vietnam (5.7%) and Germany (2.7%).
|
Almond shipments, Australia, in mt |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
China |
51,941 |
54,189 |
4.3% |
|
Australia |
14,617 |
14,091 |
-3.6% |
|
India |
15,458 |
13,439 |
-13.1% |
|
Turkey |
5,820 |
5,750 |
-1.2% |
|
Vietnam |
4,710 |
5,241 |
11.3% |
|
Germany |
2,705 |
2,454 |
-9.3% |
|
Spain |
2,781 |
1,283 |
-53.9% |
|
New Zealand |
1,439 |
1,256 |
-12.7% |
|
Thailand |
1,182 |
1,173 |
-0.8% |
|
UAE |
2,803 |
1,112 |
-60.3% |
|
Others |
7,269 |
5,650 |
-22.3% |
|
Total |
110,725 |
105,638 |
-4.6% |
|
Almond Board of Australia; Mar-Sep Shelled and unshelled |
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