Almonds: diverging export market trends

Exports save the day

July marked another strong export month for US almonds. At 197.150 million pounds total shipments stood 10% higher than the 179.43 million pounds recorded in July 2024. Domestic shipments thereby declined by 6%, from 53.10 million pounds in July 2024 to 50.15 million pounds in July 2025. Exports rose by 16% from 126.3 million pounds to 147 million pounds.

Grand total shipments, however, dipped by nearly 2% in 2024/2025. While exports flatlined, domestic shipments declined by 8% to a low not seen since 2016/2017 when domestic shipments stood at 676 million pounds. India is the main driver for exports. Not only did exports to India range 6% higher than in 2023/2024 but the country now accounts for as much as 21% of US almond exports.

Contrary to this, shipments to Spain witnessed a 12% downturn. Exports to Europe as whole were only 1% up on the previous season at 650.65 million pounds. Shipments to the United Arab Emirates declined by 3% in 2024/2025. To the Middle East as a region, however, shipments recorded a 5% rise to 340.7 million pounds with Turkey showing a notable lift of 7%.

Comfortable starting point for US almonds

At 2.713 billion pounds the season’s final crop receipts did not make the objective forecast of 2.8 billion pounds. With a computed inventory of 514.87 million pounds remaining from 2024/2025 the industry has started the new season in a comfortable supply situation. Harvesting is underway in California with relatively mild weather prevailing in spring and summer so far. While buyers seized on the price declines in July, it will be interesting to see in how far prices will rebound in August and how this will impact demand.

Tariffs to continue to impact trade

Trump’s tariffs will also be a decisive factor in 2025/2026. While demand for US almonds has steadily grown in India in recent years, Trump’s recent tariff hikes has strained relations between the two countries. Not only did the Trump administration impose a 25% tariff on most goods imported from India as of 7 August after the two countries failed to reach a deal in time but this will be followed by another 25% as of 27 August due to India’s closeness to Russia as a way of pressuring the latter into ending the war in Ukraine. While this has sparked calls to boycott US companies such as Apple or Mc Donalds in India, economists believe that trading relations will remain intact between the US and India.

Almond producers in Spain are also horrified by the EU-US deal which places a 15% baseline tariff on most EU products imported into the US. While Spanish producers have to stick to strict EU regulations on irrigation and the use of pesticides, they also have to endure unfair competition from California, which provides 85% of the world’s almonds. US almonds will continue to enter the EU market at relatively low tariffs of 2.0-5.8%.

Reality has also sunk in that trading will remain difficult with China. US almond exports to here in fact slumped by 52% to 50.81 million pounds in 2024/2025 as compared with 2023/2024 as tensions prevail. Negotiations concerning a trade deal between the US and China are ongoing. This week, Trump agreed to extend the ninety-day truce agreed in May by another ninety days to 10 November. While this last-minute move has prevented tariff hikes for now, it does leave exporters and importers in both countries in a state of uncertainty, which will continue to slow trade.

Trump’s 35% baseline tariff on many products imported from Canada has also hit headlines highlighting that relations between the two neighbours are strained. Many exemptions are, however, in place due to the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement, which also covers almonds.

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