Almonds: downturn in bearing acreage
April 28, 2026 at 12:26 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
First decline in more than 30 years
At 1.4 million acres bearing acreage will sit 1% lower than last year. Drivers are orchard removals and a slowdown in new plantings. The initial bearing estimate figure includes an estimated 12,211 acres that will be removed between April and August 2026.
As the Almond Board of California highlights this is the first decline since 1995. Removals will, however, range 3% lower than last year at 47,588 acres. LandIQ will issue the final estimate including total and abandoned acreage in November. Yet, the industry is looking out for the Subjective Estimate, which will be issued by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service on 12 May. This will be the first official indicator for the 2026 crop.
|
Standing acreage estimate |
|||
|
Acres |
2025 (final) |
2026 (initial) |
Diff. |
|
Non-bearing |
104,900 |
- |
- |
|
Bearing |
1,401,097 |
1,385,870 |
-1.1% |
|
Total |
1,505,997 |
- |
- |
|
Potentially abandoned |
19,927 |
- |
- |
|
Total removed |
49,197 |
47,588 |
-3.3% |
|
LandIQ 19/11/25 vs. 23/04/25 |
|||
New plantings stop dropping
Key highlight of the 2025 California Almond Nursery Sales Report issued by USDA NASS on 23 April is that plantings remained stable between June 2024 and May 2025 with at least 2.93 million almond trees sold. New plantings accounted for 52% (12,000 acres), whereas the remaining 39% (9,000 acres) were planted to replace existing trees. Yet, total sales have dropped by 26% as compared with the 31,000 acres registered in June 2022 to May 2023 and new plantings even declined by 29%.
Land IQ’s final standing acreage estimate for 2025 points to a similar direction as the non-bearing acreage, defined as orchards planted in 2023, 2024 and 2025, stood at 104,900 acres. This is 26% down on the 142,306 acres planted in 2022-2024.
|
Almond nursery sales (acres) |
|||
|
|
June 22 – May 23 |
June 23 – May 24 |
June 24 – May 25 |
|
Total |
31,000 |
23,000 |
23,000 |
|
New orchards |
17,000 |
12,000 |
12,000 |
|
USDA NASS, 23/04/26 |
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