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Almonds: game changer in Spain

June 2, 2025 at 10:20 AM , Der AUDITOR
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MADRID/SACRAMENTO. A lucky strike will compensate for the reductions in output in Spain as new estimates turn definite for almonds. Organic almonds account for a stunning 26% of the area under cultivation. California is bracing for the first heatwave of the year.

New estimates in Spain

Although Spain witnessed copious amounts of rain in March with hail and pests causing further damages, a lucky stroke has proved a game changer for this year’s crop. Production figures presented at this year’s Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress in May were still relatively conservative at 122,000 mt. In recent weeks, however, the market has been rumbling as productive hectares have climbed. New bearing trees have compensated for the losses.

According to Spain’s leading agricultural organisations the productive area has risen by 10% from 552,748 ha in 2024 to 609,514 ha in 2025, most notably in the producing areas of Murcia (+59% to 82,493 ha), Valencia (+61% to 63,390 ha) and in Castilla-La Mancha (-12% to 142,945 ha). Expectation is that total production will climb by 5% to just below 128,000 mt. Contradictory developments will, however, occur in the different producing areas. Andalusia as Spain’s leading producing area will witness a 5% downturn in production. Contrary to this, production will surge by 31% in Aragon, whereas Castilla-La Mancha will witness a 20% slump.

Almond kernel production, Spain (mt)

Region

2024/25

2025/26

Diff.

Andalusia

41,582

39,636

-4.7%

Aragon

22,110

28,876

30.6%

Castilla-La Mancha

32,335

25,817

-20.2%

Catalonia

9,365

11,431

1.4%

C. Valenciana

4,490

7,213

12.8%

Extremadura

5,854

6,500

8.0%

Murcia

3,900

6,200

19.5%

Balearic Islands

530

515

-2.8%

La Rioja

550

490

-10.9%

Others

821

961

17.1%

Total

121,538

127,639

5.0%

ASAJA, COAG, UPA, Cooperativas Agroalimentarias de Espaňa, AEOFRUSE

Organic area reaches stunning 26%

In addition, the high amount of rain witnessed in March brings some advantage. While the timing was far from ideal during pollination and fruit set, the rains did help to alleviate some of the difficulties growers are confronted with who rely on irrigation and to improve soil moisture. As much as 80% of the area under cultivation is non-irrigated. The area under organic production has also grown b 18,600 ha since last year and now exceeds 156,000 ha, thereby accounting for a stunning 26% of the total area.

Weather to turn hot in California

As Olam reports weather conditions have been favourable in California in recent weeks. Towards the end of the week temperatures should, however, rise to 102F (39C). Projections also show that carry-out supplies may fall short of 500 million pounds, which may prompt shortages in the transition period between the current and the new crop. Trump’s tariffs are also giving rise to concerns as the US exports as much as 70% of its almonds and domestic consumption is dismal as recent shipping figures highlight. The truce announced between Washington and Beijing on 12 May has become shaky as both countries are blaming each other of breaking agreements.

 

View more
- price chart, almonds, Mamra, Iran
- price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
- price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
- more price charts 

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