Almonds: US harvest gains traction
August 20, 2026 at 12:17 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
More consistent news on US crop
US industry forecasts range at 2.7 billion pounds and below for this year’s crop. With inventories ranging 4% lower than last year as the July Position Report issued by California Almonds indicates there is a risk that supply will be more constrained in 2026/2027. Harvesting started around two weeks early with reports of small kernel sizes and is now well underway. As social media posts highlight the crop will be similar in size or a bit smaller than last year. Small kernel sizes are still an issue and orchards, which performed well last year are performing less well this year with the opposite being the case for orchards that underperformed last year.
Weather conditions are also not quite ideal as thunderstorms and rain occurred in the Central Valley last week. Anticipation is that El Niño will prompt the weather to be wetter than normal in California in winter. Growers will, in addition, anxiously watch the weather in the later part of the harvest season as rain may impact drying quality.
Prices on the rise
Farmgate prices have gone up with harvest reports being issued. The anticipated supply constraints are also driving up export prices. Quotations for whole kernels have risen sharply this week.
|
Almonds |
||
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
USD/kg |
|
Standard, 5% |
6.51 |
7.62 |
|
California, SSR 27/30 |
6.90 |
8.08 |
|
NPX, 23/25 |
8.16 |
9.55 |
|
Blanched, whole and broken, 70/5 |
7.41 |
8.67 |
|
Blanched, diced |
7.53 |
8.81 |
|
Blanched, sliced/slivered |
7.63 |
8.93 |
|
Blanched, meal |
7.43 |
8.70 |
|
Trade sources, DDP Central Europe, Aug-Sep 2026 |
||
INC maintains firm output for US
In the Nutfruit Magazine issued in July the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council projects global kernel basis production 5% higher than last year at 1.7 million mt (3.8 billion pounds) and global kernel supply 6% higher at nearly 2 million mt (4.4 billion pounds) as compared with last year’s 1.9 million mt (4.1 billion pounds). US kernel output should remain firm. Rain, impacting quality and harvest operations, dashed any hopes of a strong rebound in production in Australia with the crop only estimated 7% higher than last year. Prospects in Spain were quite encouraging after excellent weather conditions were witnessed in winter. Yet, frost struck on 30 March, which impacted a large area of the country’s rainfed organic production.
|
Global almond production, kernel basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
1,201,300 |
1,201,300 |
0.0% |
|
Australia |
155,697 |
166,892 |
7.2% |
|
Spain |
105,000 |
146,000 |
39.0% |
|
Turkey |
35,000 |
35,000 |
0.0% |
|
Portugal |
18,820 |
20,000 |
6.3% |
|
Italy |
22,200 |
22,400 |
0.9% |
|
China |
20,000 |
22,000 |
10.0% |
|
Morocco |
18,100 |
18,100 |
0.0% |
|
Tunisia |
13,500 |
16,500 |
22.2% |
|
Greece |
5,000 |
14,500 |
190.0% |
|
Chile |
12,800 |
9,500 |
-25.8% |
|
Iran |
6,100 |
6,200 |
1.6% |
|
Others |
16,300 |
17,000 |
4.3% |
|
Total |
1,627,297 |
1,705,392 |
4.8% |
|
Almond Board of California, Almond Board of Australia, AEOFRUSE, Aegean Exporters Association, Portugal Nuts, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Chilean Almond Board, Greek Nuts & Fruits Trade Association, AEOFRUSE and other INC sources |
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