Almonds: high exports in bullish market

Exports surge in August

Grand total shipments were 21% higher at 190 million pounds in August, the first month of the season, as compared with the 158 million pounds witnessed at the start of last season. While exports surged by 31% to 143 million pounds as compared with last year’s 109 million pounds, domestic shipments ranged 3% lower at 47 million pounds as opposed to last year’s 48 million pounds.

With shipments more than doubling India has seen a strong start to the season. Unlike last year, when shipments only picked up in the second half of the season. Issue is that buyers need to replenish stocks for Diwali. Select Harvest, however, expects trade flows to India to slow after September.

Shipments to Pakistan are also showing an impressive more than triple rise in shipments from California as volumes formerly directed towards the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia are being rerouted through here. Exports to Japan have also risen by 52%. Although shipments to China and Southeast Asia have underperformed expectation is that exports to Vietnam will pick up ahead of Chinese New Year. At 69 million pounds subtotal exports to the Asia-Pacific region stand more than twice as high as the 33 million pounds noted in August 2025.

Exports to Europe are a mixed bag. While shipments to Spain are 16% down, exports to Italy have surged by 61%. The Netherlands are showing a 5% decline and Germany a 15% rise. At 46 million pounds the subtotal shipments to Europe range 6% higher than last year’s 43 million pounds.

In the Middle East, exports to Turkey have more than doubled, whereas shipments to the United Arab Emirates have slumped by 63%, reason being the continuing disruptions. Subtotal shipments to the Middle East and Africa have fallen by 20%, from 22 million pounds in August 2025 to 18 million pounds in August 2026.

With an uptick of 8% Canada is back in the top ten. At 11 million pounds subtotal shipments to the Americas range 5% higher than last year’s 10 million pounds.

Carry-in inventory lower than last year

While the carry-in inventory is officially estimated nearly 3% lower than last year’s 483.8 million pounds at 470.7 million pounds, the higher than anticipated loss and exempt rate of nearly 3% witnessed in 2025/2026 has prompted California Almonds to conduct a voluntary survey regarding the edible portion of the 2026/2027 carry-in inventory. Since the handlers, who took part in the survey, indicated that the edible inventory represented 95% of the total inventory the edible carry-in inventory is estimated at 447 million pounds.

Crop receipts exceeded 400 million pounds in August, which is a stunning 55% up on last year’s 260 million pounds. As Select Harvest highlights this reflects the fastest arrival of the past ten years as harvesting started two to three weeks earlier than usual.

Bullish market sentiments persist

Although receipts are up reports consistently show that kernels sizes are rather small and that the industry now expecting a smaller crop of around 2.6 billion pounds. As carry-in supplies are range below 500,000 pounds anticipation is that supply will be rather tight this season. Unlike last year, when importers adopted a hand-to-mouth approach, reports now suggest that buyers have come to accept that the market will remain bullish.

As Select Harvest states buyers are even asking for full year contracts issue being that production has passed its peak in California and that there are few alternatives available. Spain’s crop will, however, temporarily weigh on interest in Europe for Californian almonds. Although El Niño will help to replenish reservoirs in California water supplies will remain an issue. Production costs are also on the rise, which will make almonds less attractive as a long-time investment. Prices continued to climb throughout August.

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