Macadamias: larger crop puts pressure on prices

Stable demand

The macadamia market had initially started 2026 with stable prices. This was largely due to tight carry-over stocks following the significantly smaller 2025 crop in key producing countries such as South Africa and Australia. Whole kernels, in particular, were in short supply at the start of the season, whilst demand from the snack and ingredients sectors remained stable. With the start of the new harvest, a change is now on the horizon, as the experts at ofi note in their latest report. A significant recovery in production is expected in the main producing countries, which should improve supply in the coming months. Should demand fail to keep pace, this could put increasing pressure on prices.

Recovery despite weather risks in South Africa

In South Africa, the 2026 crop is estimated at around 93,000-95,000 mt of in-shell nuts (NIS). This is expected to mark a significant recovery compared with last year. However, persistent heavy rainfall in key growing regions is raising concerns about quality. China’s demand for NIS also remains a key factor for the processing sector, according to ofi. At the same time, China has reduced the import duty on NIS and kernels from South Africa from 12% to 0%, which is likely to boost demand from China.

According to Alex Whyte, director of the Green Farms Nut Company, the global crop has now risen by 20% compared with the previous year, whilst demand has not increased to the same extent; this is reported by farmer’s weekly. Stocks in the EU are also higher following record imports last year, whilst US buyers have built up their stocks ahead of the introduction of new import duties in 2025 and therefore also have stocks available. This development has led to a fall in prices. In addition, the Rand’s strength against the US dollar – which is stronger than expected at the start of the year – is putting pressure on South African growers. China has now overtaken South Africa as the largest producer, whilst, according to Whyte, Chinese buyers expect imported South African goods to be able to compete on price with domestic supplies. Unshelled macadamia nuts are likely to continue to be exported to China; however, some processors may use the nuts for kernel processing, thereby further increasing the supply of kernels. Furthermore, South African macadamia nuts are subject to a 30% duty in India, whilst Australia can export to that country duty-free, according to farmer’s weekly.

Australia is struggling with currency pressures

Australia is expecting a crop of around 56,000-58,000 mt NIS in 2026. An improved flowering phase and the increasing maturity of the plantations are supporting the recovery, and initial field reports indicate good nut development, according to ofi, although the final crop volume and quality will continue to depend on the weather during the harvest. Farmgate prices are roughly on a par with last year’s levels and are being supported by strong demand for Australian macadamia kernels. However, the weaker US dollar against the Australian dollar is putting pressure on export prices.

Positive signs from Kenya

Kenya, too, is reporting better crop prospects than initially expected. Sufficient rainfall in East Africa has supported the development of the nuts, and in some regions the harvest is due to begin shortly. At the same time, the current regulations on NIS exports remain an important factor. Kenya had previously banned the export of in-shell nuts to promote domestic processing. Changes to this policy could therefore affect the supply of kernels in the coming weeks.

In the short term, tight carry-over stocks and the limited availability of whole kernels are likely to continue to support the global market. However, as the harvest progresses and volumes from the countries of origin increase, a gradual easing is expected, particularly for lower-quality kernels. According to ofi, the development of crop volumes, quality and demand from China remain decisive factors.

Higher EU imports

EU macadamia imports rose by just under 12% year-on-year during the period 1 January to 6 September 2026. The main supplier is South Africa, although its shipments to EU countries fell by a good 9%, whilst Kenya exported almost 50% more macadamias to the EU. Australia and China rank third and fourth amongst the main suppliers, with the latter increasing its exports to the EU by almost 300%. In total, the EU imported 6,835 mt of shelled and unshelled macadamia nuts during the period in question.

By far the largest buyer within the EU is the Netherlands, followed by Germany and Spain. The average import price during the period mentioned was EUR 10.63/kg, which was 5.3% below last year’s figure of EUR 11.26/kg. The total value of imports since the start of the year thus stood at just under EUR 72.65 million.

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