Almonds: high exports reduce carry-over stocks

January 23, 2025 at 9:22 AM , Der AUDITOR
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CANBERRA. The free trade agreement between Australia and China favours almond exports this season. At the same time, record exports ensure that there are hardly any carry-over stocks that could be taken into the new season at the beginning of March.

Exports remain record-breaking

Boosted by the free trade agreement between Australia and China, Australian almond exports set a new record in November 2024. According to the Managing Director of the Almond Board of Australia, Tim Jackson, the uncertainty surrounding a possible trade war between the USA and China in 2025 could further fuel this demand.

In November 2024, a total of 15,427 mt of shelled and unshelled almonds were shipped domestically and overseas, an increase of 74.1% compared to the same month last year. Domestic shipments increased by 12.4% to 2,599 mt and the export volume also rose by 96% to 12,828 mt. China remains by far the most important sales market for Australia this season, after the country increasingly turned away from the USA as a trading partner in recent months. The country imported 9,239 mt from Australia in November, an increase of 417.9% compared to the same month last year. Meanwhile, shipments to Turkey (+88.7% to 1,406 mt) and Germany (+108.1% to 697 mt) also increased in this period, while countries such as India (-29.8% to 550 mt), Vietnam (-71.7% to 516 mt) and Spain (-51.8% to 149 mt) drastically reduced their imports.

Since the start of the 2024/2025 season on 1 March 2024, a total of around 143,921 mt of Australian almonds with and without shells have been shipped domestically and overseas. While domestic shipments increased by just 0.8% year-on-year to 20,064 mt, exports rose by 35.2% to 123,857 mt. Shipments to China more than doubled year-on-year to 69,964 mt. While deliveries to India remained relatively stable at 17,158 mt, Germany (+36.3% to 4,119 mt) and the United Arab Emirates (+97.1% to 3,502 mt) also increased their imports noticeably. In contrast, shipments to Turkey (-8.2% to 7,926 mt), Vietnam (-44.1% to 5,288 mt) and Spain (-64.4% to 3,263 mt) declined overall.

Australien almond shipments, in mt

Destination

2023/24

2024/25

Diff.

China

31,437

69,964

122.6%

Australia

19,904

20,064

0.8%

India

17,138

17,158

0.1%

Turkey

8,635

7,926

-8.2%

Vietnam

9,464

5,288

-44.1%

Germany

3,022

4,119

36.3%

UAE

1,777

3,502

97.1%

Spain

9,174

3,263

-64.4%

Thailand

824

1,540

86.9%

Netherlands

1,282

1,234

-3.7%

Others

8,891

9,863

10.9%

Total

111,548

143,921

29.0%

Almond Board of Australia; Mar-Nov

Shelled and unshelled

Official crop forecast still pending

There are currently no reports on the new crop, which is likely to be imminent. Although the Almond Board of Australia had announced that the industry would publish its estimates in last week, there is no official forecast as yet. However, due to the high level of exports, small carry-over stocks are to be expected, as last year's crop was only 153,500 mt of shelled almonds.

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