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Almonds: US production estimate cut by 13%

July 13, 2021 8:27 AM, Der AUDITOR
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MADRID/SACRAMENTO. The 2021 objective report for almonds in California came with a bang on Monday. While the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) still anticipated a record production of 3.2 billion lbs in May, this figure has now been slashed to 2.8 billion lbs. This estimate, however, raises some questions.

Production estimate is still high

Extremely good blooming in February and March coupled with good weather conditions in April prompted NASS to reckon with a higher bearing acreage and a record production of 3.2 billion lbs in May. This forecast, nevertheless, took the market by surprise as California was already hit by drought at the time. The weather has turned for the worse as California is presently caught in a circle of extreme drought, heat and fire, which is forcing growers to make tough decisions.

In the objective almond report Nass concedes that the the crop is not developing as well as expected since water is lacking and temperatures hit a record high in June. Production is now estimated at 2.8 billion lbs, which is 13% down on the subjective May estimate and 10% down on last year's record crop of 3.12 billion lbs. Neverthless, it should be noted that this still amounts to the second largest crop on record. Although yields are expected to range 15% lower than last year at 2,110 lbs/acre, bearing acreage is still estimated at 1.33 million acres. This does indeed raise some questions as reports are rife over growers being forced to cut down trees.

US almond production, without shell

Year

Million lbs

Acres

lbs/Acre

2021*

2,800

1,330,000

2,110

2020

3,115

1,250,000

2,490

2019

2,560

1,180,000

2,170

2018

2,280

1,090,000

2,090

2017

2,270

1,030,000

2,200

National Agricultural Statistics Service

*objective report

US exports maintain record high

The Almond Board of California's position report for June vividly illustrates that exports have retained record high levels. A net total of 2.669 billion lbs have been shipped this season so far, which is 22% up on last year. Exports range at 1.931 billion lbs, which is 30% up on last year, and domestic shipments at 737 million lbs, which is nominally 4% up on last year. While shipments to Asia started to slow JUne, shipments to Europe and the Middle east continued high. Nevertheless, year to date shipments to India are 45% up on last year at 338 million lbs, to Spain 19% up on last year at 213 million lbs and to Germany 5% up on last year at 138 million lbs. Shipments to Turkey are also 7% up at 63 million lbs.

US almond shipments, in million lbs

Destination

2020/21

2019/20

Diff.

Domestic

737.194

706.101

4%

North/South America

120.558

99.917

 21%

Asia-Pacific

760.072

535.886

42%

Europe

716.534

595.557

20%

Africa/Middle East

334.379

254.816

31%

Total

2.669

2.192

22%

ABC, 01/09/2020-30/06/2021

Traders bet on rise in prices

Market players hope that demand will remain high in 2021/2022. Judiging by the volumes already sold this should certainly be the case. As production is set to decline prices are expected to rise. Spot market prices are firm in Europe for now. Valenic almonds are, for instance, still trading in a range of EUR 3.65-3.75/kg FCA Spain.

Almonds

Type

EUR/kg

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

3.65-3.75

Valencia, 12/14 mm, blanched, Spain

4.50-4.60

Organic, Valencia, 12/14 mm, blanched, Spain

10.80

Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural, Spain

5.15

Marcona, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

7.20

California, SSR, 23/25, natural

4.25

California, SSR, 23/25, blanched

4.90

FCA Spain

View more
price chart, almonds. natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSRmore price charts 

Attached Files

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price chart almonds natural California 27-30 SSR
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price chart almonds natural Valencia 12-14 Spain

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