Free of charge

Almonds: sharp downward crop revision

April 24, 2025 at 11:15 AM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

LOXTON/MADRID. According to a news alert issued by the Almond Board of Australia the 2025/26 crop will fall at least 10-20% short of industry expectations. Tariffs have also impacted buying.

Heat, dryness and frost prompt downgrade

In an update issued on 24 April the Almond Board of Australia states that received consistent reports from processors indicate that hot dry conditions throughout the growing season and post-bloom frosts in September have contributed to a downgraded crop outlook.

Harvest was completed before Easter for the first time in many years, but the high value Nonpareil variety, which makes up nearly 50% of industry plantings, has been returning lower than expected kernel weights during primary processing. Low kernel moistures due to the excessive heat is being cited as a key factor.

Pre-season estimate of 155,531 mt

An actual crop size will be confirmed in September-October once hulling and shelling is completed, but early out-turn results have provided sufficient evidence to notify the market that the 2025/26 crop will fall short of expectations. The industry tonnage timeline that calculates yield against age of orchards indicated that 2025/26 had the potential to yield almost 172,000 mt, but a pre-season update tempered these expectations to 155,531 mt, which would only be 1% up on the 153,550 mt produced in 2024/25.

Tariffs prompt buyers to turn to Australia and Spain

Marketers are experiencing strong demand for Australian almonds given the tariffs being imposed in China and potentially other export markets. This uncertainty has many first-time buyers turning their attention to Australia as an alternate source. Similar reports stating that tariffs are fuelling demand are also emerging in Spain.

Pricing has climbed significantly since the 1 March season opening and combined with the weak Australian dollar, grower returns look set to be among the best in a decade.

 

View more
price chart, almonds, Mamra, Iran
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
more price charts 

 

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Nuts
Nov 27, 2025
SACRAMENTO. Low carry-over stocks made for a slow start to the new season. There was hardly any product available during the transition phase. However, market players are confident that the crop could be even better than expected.
Nuts
Nov 27, 2025
ORDU. With Ferrero having completed buying the new price reality for hazelnuts sits uncomfortably with traders. Suppliers in Turkey are somewhat alarmed with the demand situation in Europe. Exports are approaching a historic low.
Nuts
Nov 27, 2025
SUCRE/PALMA. Massive yield losses have caused prices for Brazil nuts to rise this year. The average price for imports into the EU has increased by 76% compared to last year.
Nuts
Nov 26, 2025
HANOI/BRUSSELS. As African countries in particular are becoming increasingly interested in processing their raw cashew nuts, Vietnamese producers could face problems in the future. The EU is also significantly increasing its imports from Côte d'Ivoire.