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Almonds: sharp downward crop revision

April 24, 2025 at 11:15 AM , Der AUDITOR
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LOXTON/MADRID. According to a news alert issued by the Almond Board of Australia the 2025/26 crop will fall at least 10-20% short of industry expectations. Tariffs have also impacted buying.

Heat, dryness and frost prompt downgrade

In an update issued on 24 April the Almond Board of Australia states that received consistent reports from processors indicate that hot dry conditions throughout the growing season and post-bloom frosts in September have contributed to a downgraded crop outlook.

Harvest was completed before Easter for the first time in many years, but the high value Nonpareil variety, which makes up nearly 50% of industry plantings, has been returning lower than expected kernel weights during primary processing. Low kernel moistures due to the excessive heat is being cited as a key factor.

Pre-season estimate of 155,531 mt

An actual crop size will be confirmed in September-October once hulling and shelling is completed, but early out-turn results have provided sufficient evidence to notify the market that the 2025/26 crop will fall short of expectations. The industry tonnage timeline that calculates yield against age of orchards indicated that 2025/26 had the potential to yield almost 172,000 mt, but a pre-season update tempered these expectations to 155,531 mt, which would only be 1% up on the 153,550 mt produced in 2024/25.

Tariffs prompt buyers to turn to Australia and Spain

Marketers are experiencing strong demand for Australian almonds given the tariffs being imposed in China and potentially other export markets. This uncertainty has many first-time buyers turning their attention to Australia as an alternate source. Similar reports stating that tariffs are fuelling demand are also emerging in Spain.

Pricing has climbed significantly since the 1 March season opening and combined with the weak Australian dollar, grower returns look set to be among the best in a decade.

 

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price chart, almonds, Mamra, Iran
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
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