Nuts

Almonds: ending stocks to hit record

March 23, 2022 11:55 AM, Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO/REUS. While almond production declined in the USA and in Spain in 2021/2022, Australia is preparing for a bumper crop. Flowering has been completed in California but farmers report mixed experiences with nighttime frost. Exports from Spain have slowed.

High demand anticipated in Australia

Judging by the recent position report issued by the Almond Board of California and the data collected by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) global almond kernel production should reach 1.66M mt (3.67B lbs). Although yields ranged lower in the USA, crop receipts only declined by 6.33% to 1.31M mt (2.89B lbs) between February and August as opposed to the same period last year. Olam Nuts reckons that the crop will reach 1.32M mt (2.92B lbs). In Spain, production is estimated 5.5% lower, which is not quite as bad as initial estimates predicted.

Production has, by contrast, risen by 9% in Australia to 124,349 mt (274.14M lbs). As new trees are bearing fruit the Almond Board of Australia reckons that production will surge by another 17% this year and reach 145,000 mt (319.6M lbs). Annual production may even hit 185,000 mt (407.8M lbs) in 2025. The Almond Board of Australia is confident that demand will remain high and is eager to maintain record export volumes and continue to supply more than 50 countries. Recent years have shown that buyers require multiple channels to maintain supplies to be able to react to supply squeezes and delays, which presents an opportunity for Australia.

Almond production, kernel basis, in mt

Country

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

USA

1,400,444*

1,310,000*

-6.3%

Australia

114,400

124,439

8.8%

Spain

115,600

109,200

-5.5%

Turkey

16,500

18,000

9.1%

Tunesia

16,000

16,500

3.1%

Portugal

12,000

15,000

25.0%

Morocco

14,000

13,000

-7.1%

Chile

11,000

12,000

9.1%

Italy

10,000

8,500

-15.0%

Greece

7,000

4,000

-42.9%

Iran

6,000

4,000

-33.3%

Others

30,000

30,000

0.0%

Gesamt

1,752,944

1.664.639

-5.1%

INC based on Almond Board of California, USDA NASS, Almond Board of Australia, AEOFRUSE and DESCALMENDRA, Aegean Exporters' Association, Greek Nuta & Fruits Trade Association and other sources
*Crop receipts, Feburary Position report Almond Board of California

Frost impact still to be assessed

Although flowering has been completed in Califorania and the leaves on the trees are green, it still remains unclear which impact frost has had. This will only show once the fruit sets appear, which will take a few weeks. As Blue Diamond Almonds reports some farmers are confident that prospects are excellent. The war in Ukraine will, however, continue to drive up fuel prices, which will prove a challenge for the export market and buyers are urged to act sooner rather than later. However, it should be noted that global end-of-season stocks will reach a record high, which will add pressure.

Almonds

Type

EUR/kg

USD/kg

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

4.45

4.90

Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain

4.60

5.06

California, SSR, 23/25, blanched, USA

5.40

5.94

Butte/Padre, SSR, 27/30, natural, USA

4.60

5.06

Butte/Padre, SSR, 27/30, blanched, USA

5.30

5.83

FCA Spain

Exports slow in Spain

At 8,519 mt (18.8M lbs), Spain's January exports range around 23% lower than last year. Although France remained the most important export destination in January, monthly exports ranged 4% lower at 2,359 mt (5.2M lbs) as compared with January last year. While shipments to Italy rose by 6% to 1,722 mt (3.8B lbs), shipments to Germany declined sharply by 44% to 1,487 mt (3.3M lbs) and to Belgium by a more modest 7% to 489 mt (1.1M lbs). Spain exported a total of 80,404 mt (177.3M lbs) between August and January, which is around 12% higher than in the same period in 2020/2021. France, Germany and Italy are the most imporatant export destinations by far.

Almond epxorts, Spain, in mt

Destination

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

France

15,177

19,928

31.3%

Germany

15,886

17,324

9.1%

Italy

12,618

13,883

10.0%

Belgium

2,240

3,202

42.9%

Portugal

2,486

3,103

24.9%

UK

4,575

2,998

-34.5%

Netherlands

2,693

2,583

-4.1%

Poland

1,988

2,473

24.4%

Greece

1,171

1,652

41.1%

Czech Republic

882

1,268

43.9%

Others

11,974

11,989

0.1%

Total

71,688

80,404

12.2%

Ministry for Tourism, Industry and Trade 01/08-31/01

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price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
more price charts

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price chart almonds natural Valencia 12-14 Spain

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