Almonds: tight supplies and speculations
July 16, 2024 at 10:39 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Strong shipments in June
Opinions diverge as to in how far June shipments were in line with expectations. While Olam highlights that they fell short of the anticipated 220 million pounds, other suppliers state that they were just as expected. Fact is that the US exported 144.1 million pounds of almonds and domestic volumes climbed to 62.0 million pounds, thereby prompting monthly total shipments to reach 206.2 million pounds. This is 10% up on the 186.6 million pounds shipped in June 2023. June, in other words, performed remarkably well.
Total shipments range 6% higher than last year at 2.5 billion pounds. Domestic shipments have climbed by 2% to 675 million pounds and exports stand 7% higher than last year at 1.8 billion pounds. While exports to India have surged by 24%, they have declined by a moderate 3% to Spain. Contrary to this, shipments to the United Arab Emirates are 29% up.
|
US almond shipments (1,000 lbs) |
|||
|
Destinations |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
659,833 |
674,966 |
2.3% |
|
India |
306,816 |
380,544 |
24.0% |
|
Spain |
178,823 |
173,908 |
-2.8% |
|
UAE |
115,007 |
148,605 |
29.2% |
|
China/Hong Kong |
139,007 |
102,621 |
-26.2% |
|
Netherlands |
81,383 |
99,766 |
22.6% |
|
Germany |
103,819 |
99,340 |
-4.3% |
|
Turkey |
74,075 |
94,158 |
27.1% |
|
Japan |
81,841 |
81,338 |
-0.6% |
|
Italy |
78,090 |
79,209 |
1.4%% |
|
Morocco |
58,002 |
72,529 |
25.0% |
|
Others |
501,249 |
505,563 |
0.9% |
|
Total |
2,377,947 |
2,512,547 |
5.7% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-30/06 |
|||
Tight supplies
Industry representatives do, however, unanimously agree that remaining supplies are limited with quality being an issue. Uncommitted inventories have indeed slumped by 36% to 337.5 million pounds as compared with last year. As a further estimated 54 million pounds of loss and exempt will also be counted into the equation at the end of the season available inventories sit even lower. Certain sizes and varieties are sold out and a large share of inventories does not conform to USDA standards. This in conjunction with the downward revision in the USDA’s objective forecast for this year’s crop to 2.8 billion pounds has driven up the market.
With just over two weeks remaining of the current season attentio has turned to harvest conditions in California. As preparations for the harvest are in their final stages California is preparing for hot weather and growers are monitoring early hull splits. These contain no kernels and serve as an indication has to how well the trees have been fertilised and what pest controls are necessary. As cash is an issue for many farmers and orchards have been left abandoned reports abound emphasising that pests may have a great impact on this year’s crop. Handlers have so far already sold 271.3 million pounds for 2024/2025.
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