Macadamias: suppliers faced with uncertainty
March 3, 2026 at 4:55 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Trade uncertainty dampens expectations
The South African macadamia industry is cautious about the 2026 season. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding US import tariffs and the appreciation of the South African rand are worsening the economic outlook for growers. After prices stabilised following the slump during the pandemic, new trade policy measures in the US have once again caused uncertainty. Sales of Style 4 kernels in particular – mainly destined for the US market – were weak, resulting in stocks being carried over into the new season, according to FreshPlaza, citing Farmer's Weekly.
Within a few weeks, US tariff rates were adjusted several times: an extension of the AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) preferential agreement was initially followed by the announcement of a flat tariff of 15%, which was later reduced to 10%. These short-term changes are making marketing more difficult and dampening the willingness of American buyers to purchase.
Customs advantages in China
Meanwhile, the Chinese market promises relief: under the China-Africa Economic Partnership Agreement, the previous 12% import duty on South African goods will be abolished in future. This could open up new sales opportunities, even in competition with Australia. However, details on the practical implementation are still pending.
The industry association Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC) expects a crop of 81,660 mt (dry nuts, inshell) for 2026. It is therefore considered unlikely that the 90,000 mt mark will be exceeded. Global demand is increasing, but only gradually. While dollar prices are expected to remain stable, the stronger rand is likely to reduce producers' revenues by around 15%. Price lists for the 2026 crop will be published in mid-March, according to Farmer's Weekly.
Call for lifting of export ban
Macadamia growers in Kenya's Kirinyaga County are pushing for a review of the current export rules. Specifically, they are calling for the ban on the export of unprocessed nuts to be lifted and for additional buyers to be allowed, according to FreshPlaza and the news site Citizen Digital. According to the farmers, the relevant provision in the Agriculture and Food Authority Act has restricted direct market access and given middlemen more influence, leading to lower farmer prices.
Prices should become more stable
Since 1 February 2026, prices have ranged between KSh 80 and 120/kg (approximately USD 0.52–0.77/kg). According to producers, there was an increase in thefts during the export ban, including some of unripe nuts. Farmers are in favour of licensing additional international buyers, including Chinese companies, in order to strengthen competition and achieve more stable prices. Overall, there are calls for a reorientation of regulation in order to better reconcile state control and economic viability.
EU imports have risen sharply
EU macadamia imports since the beginning of the year are 62.6% above last year's level. South Africa remains the most important supplier with 718 mt, but Kenya is catching up well in second place with 573 mt and an impressive increase of 503%. Australia and Vietnam follow as they have also significantly increased their shipments to EU countries compared to the same period in 2025.
The import value for the period 1 January to 1 March 2026 amounted to just under EUR 18.64 million, which is 57% higher than in the same period last year. The most important buyer within the EU is the Netherlands, which increased its imports by almost 130% to 680 mt, followed by Germany (+112% to 654 mt) and Spain (+50% to 168 mt).
|
EU macadamia imports, in mt |
|||
|
Partner |
2025 |
2026 |
Diff. |
|
South Africa |
715 |
718 |
0.4% |
|
Kenya |
95 |
573 |
503.2% |
|
Australia |
150 |
226 |
50.7% |
|
Vietnam |
13 |
71 |
446.2% |
|
Guatemala |
52 |
61 |
17.3% |
|
Others |
9 |
32 |
255.6% |
|
Total |
1,034 |
1,681 |
62.6% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/01-01/03 08026100+08026200 Macadamias, shelled and inshell |
|||
View more
- price charts for nuts, dried fruit, grains, oilseeds and more
View related articles
