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Barley: Demand shapes cultivation strategies

November 17, 2017 at 3:21 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Cultivation strategies shift in favor of other crops. Exports slowed down.

BULGARIA. Final estimates, released by the Ministry of Agriculture, place aggregate output this season at 633,393 mt, which is by 9.23% lower than output realized during the previous harvesting campaign. According to local farmers, national production could have been even lower, but favorable weather conditions, which resulted in a higher yield, weighted in favor of the final result.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 10.11.2017)

          units in MT

Beginning availability

22,000

Aggregate output

633,393

Imports

       247

Domestic consumption

114,000

   beer production

   28,500

   feed

   85,500

Exports to the world

241,549

   to EU markets

    224,332

   to rest of the world

       17,217

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Barley: entrenched in a shift of cultivation strategies

By now, it has become quite clear that cultivation of barley is losing ground to other grains such as rapeseed since the profit margin from the latter crop is higher; after all, the great majority of rapeseed is exported to EU markets. A case in point, according to local authorities, by the 9th of November 2017, estimates of sowed acreages of the grain reached 99,723 ha, which on a year-to-year basis is by 8.4% lower. Even though the percentage number will differ by the time final estimates are released, local farmers, disillusioned by the low prices of barley during harvest, send a crucial market signal that barley cultivation is currently undergoing a substantial strategic shift.

Shifts in cultivation strategy vs. foreign market positions

The market sentiment is that such an expected decrease in cultivation of barley, which will result in a subsequent drop in aggregate output, will not result in a loss of foreign market positions since the dynamics of the barley export market are in the grip of strong regional competition, which has not usually been in favor of local sellers. Tough regional competition and lack of consistent exports’ demand result in the accumulation of higher ending stocks. Customarily, barley is exported to EU markets such as Spain and Greece while to destinations outside the Union, the grain is shipped to Libya.

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