Brazil nuts: crop could be significantly smaller
March 11, 2026 at 12:48 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Volatility due to scarce raw materials and delayed shipments
According to industry reports, the Brazil nut market entered a phase of increased volatility towards the end of last year. The main cause was the limited availability of raw materials as a result of the poor crop in the previous season. As processing companies had to cease their activities early at that time, there was strong demand for early quantities of the 2026 crop, which caused commodity prices to rise significantly, according to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) in its latest report.
At the start of the new season, many processors tried to ramp up production again quickly and actively procured raw materials. At the same time, stocks in the sales markets had already shrunk significantly. Some buyers who continue to carry Brazil nuts in their product range stocked up early, putting additional pressure on the market at the start of the season. In addition, the first shipments from the 2026 crop were slower than expected, further tightening the supply situation locally.
Currency dynamics also contributed to the uncertainty. Following the election of a new president in Bolivia in October and the formation of a new administration in November, the boliviano appreciated. This made exports in US dollars less competitive, prompting some suppliers to temporarily suspend their forward sales.
Demand trends and crops prospects
Demand for short-term shipments remained stable. However, at the time the INC report was written, the demand outlook for Q2 and beyond was considered uncertain and depended primarily on developments in the retail sector. The decisive factor will be the extent to which consumer markets can accept the current high prices.
Medium-term demand will also be influenced by whether traditional buyers – some of whom have temporarily withdrawn from the Brazil nut business, as was the case in 2017 – return to the market. At the same time, growing interest from Asian markets is providing additional impetus on the demand side.
As far as supply prospects are concerned, it is not yet possible to make a reliable assessment of the 2026 crop. However, market players currently expect an average crop in terms of both quantity and quality, which could lead to an easing of prices in the future. The INC estimate remains unchanged from the last forecast in November 2025. Bolivia remains by far the most important producing country with a crop of 46,800 mt, followed by Peru with 11,760 mt and Brazil with 4,500 mt.
|
Global Brazil nut production, inshell, in mt |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Bolivia |
78,000 |
46,800 |
-40.0% |
|
Peru |
14,700 |
11,760 |
-20.0% |
|
Brazil |
7,500 |
4,500 |
-40.0% |
|
Total |
100,200 |
63,060 |
-37.1% |
|
INC, March 2026 |
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EU imports down sharply
EU Brazil nut imports in 2025 fell by almost 33% compared to 2024. Bolivia remains by far the most important supplier, although it suffered a decline of 32.6% to just 8,621 mt. It is followed by Peru, whose shipments to the EU remained largely unchanged from the previous year at 854 mt, and Brazil, which recorded a sharp decline of 65.2% to 302 mt.
Despite the significant decrease in shipment volumes, the value of imports rose by 15.5% to a good EUR 108 million in 2025. This was due to the significantly higher average import price of EUR 10.93/kg, compared to EUR 6.37/kg in 2024. This represents an increase of a whopping 71.6%. The Netherlands replaced Germany as the most important buyer within the EU, with Spain in third place.
|
EU Brazil nut imports, in mt |
|||
|
Partner |
2024 |
2025 |
Diff. |
|
Bolivia |
12,796 |
8,621 |
-32.6% |
|
Peru |
853 |
854 |
0.1% |
|
Brazil |
869 |
302 |
-65.2% |
|
USA |
48 |
52 |
8.3% |
|
Chile |
101 |
32 |
-68.3% |
|
Others |
46 |
48 |
4.3% |
|
Total |
14,713 |
9,909 |
-32.7% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/01-31/12 08012100+08012200 Brazil nuts, shelled and inshell |
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