Nuts

Cashews: La Niña still disruptive

October 31, 2022 at 10:33 AM, Der AUDITOR
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REUS. Although the weather event La Niña will continue to have an impact on cashews, the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) expects global production to be similar in size to last year.

Heavy rains and drought

La Niña is especially causing heavy rains, floods and landslips in southeast Asia, whereas drought-like conditions will become an issue in southern America. The INC reckons that the crops in India, Vietnam and Cambodia may be immediately impacted. Although La Niña already disrupted production in Brazil and Indonesia last year, these countries will not be out of the woods this season. INC production estimates have, however, remained relatively firm.

Harvesting started later in Brazil this year and reliable estimates on the crop volume and quality still have to be issued. Current estimates indicate a 26% reduction in production to 100,000 mt. Crop progress has been good in Tanzania so far and new crop shipments are underway. Gobal RCN production estimates range at 4.45 million mt, which is nominally 1% up on last year. Côte D'Ivoire will remain the leading producing country in 2022/2023.

Raw cashew nut (RCN) production in mt

Country

2021/22

2022/23*

Diff.

Côte D'Ivoire

1,000.000

1,050,000

5.0%

India

738,000

675,000

-8.5%

Cambodia

600,000

550,000

-8.3%

Vietnam

400,000

350,000

-12.5%

Nigeria

240,000

275,000

14.6%

Guinea-Bissau

180,000

225,000

25.0%

Tanzania

220,000

225,000

2.3%

Benin

240,000

220,000

-8.3%

Ghana

180,000

180,000

0.0%

Burkina Faso

100,000

130,000

30.0%

Brazil

135,000

100,000

-25.9%

Indonesia

115,000

120,000

4.3%

Guinea Conakry

60,000

90,000

50.0%

Mozambique

65,000

85,000

30.8%

Senegal

35,000

50,000

42.9%

Togo

20,000

40,000

100.0%

Gambia

15,000

20,000

33.3%

Mali

7,000

10,000

42.9%

Kenya

6,000

5,000

-16.7%

Others

54,000

55,000

1.9%

Total

4,410,000

4,455,000

1.0%

INC, Oct 2022
*Harvest January-June 2022 (Northern hemisphere), September 22 - February 23 (Southern hemisphere)

Economic crisis weighs on spending

As the INC reports India's import demand for RCN has remained robust this year, whereas processors in Vietnam have been more reluctant to buy. This should change once demand picks up in China, the USA and the EU. Question, however, is in how far the engery crisis, inflation and the war in Ukraine will continue to impact demand.

Good news, however, is that freight charges have come down, which has boosted exports to a certain extent. Yet, several main arrival ports are still congested causing afloat periods to be extended and giving rise to delays. Spot market prices have declined a bit in Europe and presently range at EUR 6.01/kg (USD 5.95/kg) FCA Spain for WW320 cashew kernels 

Cashew kernels, Vietnam

Type

EUR/kg

USD/kg

WW320

6.01

5.95

LBW320

5.75

5.69

FCA Spain

 

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