Cashews: La Niña still disruptive
October 31, 2022 at 10:33 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Heavy rains and drought
La Niña is especially causing heavy rains, floods and landslips in southeast Asia, whereas drought-like conditions will become an issue in southern America. The INC reckons that the crops in India, Vietnam and Cambodia may be immediately impacted. Although La Niña already disrupted production in Brazil and Indonesia last year, these countries will not be out of the woods this season. INC production estimates have, however, remained relatively firm.
Harvesting started later in Brazil this year and reliable estimates on the crop volume and quality still have to be issued. Current estimates indicate a 26% reduction in production to 100,000 mt. Crop progress has been good in Tanzania so far and new crop shipments are underway. Gobal RCN production estimates range at 4.45 million mt, which is nominally 1% up on last year. Côte D'Ivoire will remain the leading producing country in 2022/2023.
|
Raw cashew nut (RCN) production in mt |
|||
|
Country |
2021/22 |
2022/23* |
Diff. |
|
Côte D'Ivoire |
1,000.000 |
1,050,000 |
5.0% |
|
India |
738,000 |
675,000 |
-8.5% |
|
Cambodia |
600,000 |
550,000 |
-8.3% |
|
Vietnam |
400,000 |
350,000 |
-12.5% |
|
Nigeria |
240,000 |
275,000 |
14.6% |
|
Guinea-Bissau |
180,000 |
225,000 |
25.0% |
|
Tanzania |
220,000 |
225,000 |
2.3% |
|
Benin |
240,000 |
220,000 |
-8.3% |
|
Ghana |
180,000 |
180,000 |
0.0% |
|
Burkina Faso |
100,000 |
130,000 |
30.0% |
|
Brazil |
135,000 |
100,000 |
-25.9% |
|
Indonesia |
115,000 |
120,000 |
4.3% |
|
Guinea Conakry |
60,000 |
90,000 |
50.0% |
|
Mozambique |
65,000 |
85,000 |
30.8% |
|
Senegal |
35,000 |
50,000 |
42.9% |
|
Togo |
20,000 |
40,000 |
100.0% |
|
Gambia |
15,000 |
20,000 |
33.3% |
|
Mali |
7,000 |
10,000 |
42.9% |
|
Kenya |
6,000 |
5,000 |
-16.7% |
|
Others |
54,000 |
55,000 |
1.9% |
|
Total |
4,410,000 |
4,455,000 |
1.0% |
|
INC, Oct 2022 |
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Economic crisis weighs on spending
As the INC reports India's import demand for RCN has remained robust this year, whereas processors in Vietnam have been more reluctant to buy. This should change once demand picks up in China, the USA and the EU. Question, however, is in how far the engery crisis, inflation and the war in Ukraine will continue to impact demand.
Good news, however, is that freight charges have come down, which has boosted exports to a certain extent. Yet, several main arrival ports are still congested causing afloat periods to be extended and giving rise to delays. Spot market prices have declined a bit in Europe and presently range at EUR 6.01/kg (USD 5.95/kg) FCA Spain for WW320 cashew kernels
|
Cashew kernels, Vietnam |
||
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
USD/kg |
|
WW320 |
6.01 |
5.95 |
|
LBW320 |
5.75 |
5.69 |
|
FCA Spain |
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