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Cocoa: Rapid price turnaround

April 26, 2018 at 10:06 AM , Der AUDITOR
Demand for cocoa beans is on the rise.
Demand for cocoa beans is on the rise.
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FRANKFURT While European cocoa bean grindings broke all records over the first quarter, America shows a downwards trend. There are also new figures available from Asia, the Ivory Coast and Germany.

 

Growth potential

With 358,432 mt, Europe has posted a record number of cocoa beans ground in the first three months of the year since 1999. With 99,642 mt of ground cocoa beans, Germany not only follows this trend, it also outperforms it. Grinding figures were almost 9% higher than last year.

In 2017/18, global grinding is expected to amount to 4.49 million mt – a 2% increase over last year. The Ivory Coast, the world's largest producing country, is certainly doing its share. In the first quarter of the year, grinding increased by 2% to 130,000 mt. African and Asian countries are growing more important in processing. In the current season, it is estimated that 48% of cocoa beans will be processed in the producing countries. In the first quarter of the year, Asia recorded a growth of 7.21% to 190,244 mt.

Supplies are melting away

Cocoa prices are soaring, not only because of the global increase in demand, but also because of the production declines in Western Africa. The situation is quite different from 2016/17, which closed with a surplus of 300,000 mt. As a result, prices tumbled to the lowest levels in nine years, which boosted demand. Now, however, large processor Cargill is expecting of a well-balanced supply–demand situation for the current season. Cocoa is currently trading at 2,836 USD/mt in Chicago.

Bucking the trend

The only exception to the trend of increased grindings is North America. In the first quarter of the year, grinding figures were 1.14% lower than last year at 118,778 mt. An even weaker start of the season was seen in 2011. This means that the grinding figures are in the lower range of expectations. Previously, experts reckoned with a decrease by up to 1.5%, while others even banked on a 2% increase.

 

Q1 cocoa bean grindings in mt

Region/Country

2018

2017

Diff.

North America

118,778

120,152

-1.14%

Asia

190,244

177,450

+7.21%

Europe

358,432

339,741

+5.5%

Ivory Coast

130,000

127,451

+2%

Germany

99,642

91,423

+8.99%

Sources: NCA, CAA, CAA, GEPEX, BDSI

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Cocoa
Apr 24, 2019
BONN. As the Association of German Confectionery Industry has recently reported cocoa bean grindings in Germany have risen nominally in the first quarter. Figures are also encouraging in Europe, North America and Asia.
Cocoa
Feb 11, 2019
AMSTERDAM/FRANKFURT. The grinding statistics from Europe and North America fall short of expectations. Last year’s prolonged summer weather has put off consumers from eating chocolate in Germany and concerns have been voiced over the mid-crop in the Côte d’Ivoire. Traders are, however, skeptical towards these and similar statements.
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Oct 22, 2018
WASHINGTON DC/ SINGAPORE. North American Cocoa grindings dropped significantly in the second quarter. Judging by the recently announced cocoa grindings for the third quarter it, however, seems that demand has recovered.
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Oct 17, 2018
BONN. The Association of the German Confectionery Industry records a nominal increase of in cocoa grinds for Q3.