More Commodities - Coffee

Coffee: Consumption to reach new record in 2019/20

June 18, 2019 at 8:18 AM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

WASHINGTON, DC. According to the FAS/USDA’s recently issued coffee biannual, global production is set to decline in 2019/20. The USDA has, in addition, revised its estimates for this season’s ending stocks and anticipates a record consumption.

Record consumption and revised figures

The USDA estimates that global production will decline by 3.1% to 10.148 million mt in 2019/20. This trend is mainly driven by the biennial cycle of production in Brazil since the Arabica trees will be entering an off-year. The ending stocks are expected to drop to 2.013 million mt in 2019/20 as consumption is expected to reach a record 10.075 million mt. In addition, the USDA has observed that exports in 2018/19 are higher than initially anticipated since Brazil shipped more coffee than expected, thereby prompting the government body to revise its export and ending stock figures for 2018/19. Exports have now been raised to 7.056 millionmt and the season’s ending stocks downwards to 2.178 million mt.

EU remains leading coffee consumer

Although the imports to the EU are set to decline by 1.1 % to 2.91 million mt in 2019/20, this nevertheless represents more than 40% of all global coffee bean imports. The main suppliers include Brazil with 29%, Vietnam with 25% and Honduras with 8% as well as Colombia with 6%. Contrary to this, consumption is expected to rise by 1.51% to 2.82 million mt, which will reduce ending stocks by 5.1% to 786,000 mt in 2019/20. The US will remain the second largest importer with exports expected to rise by 1.3% to 1,617 million mt. Ending stocks are also expected to rise by nearly 3% to 414,000 mt.

Lower output in Brazil and record in Vietnam

Due to the off-year in the biennial production cycle production is expected to drop by as much as 8.5% in Brazil. However, it should be noted that this figure still is considerably higher than the 3.054 million mt produced in 2017/18, which was the last off-year. Quality concerns are being voiced over the Arabica production as many trees were in different stages of maturity when the coffee cherries were harvested.

A record production of 1.83 million mt is expected in Vietnam. This is mainly driven by ideal weather and the decline in black pepper prices over the last three years, which means the fewer farmers decide to switch to pepper.

 

World coffee production in 1,000 mt

Country

2018/19

2019/20

Diff.

Brazil

3,888

3,558

-8.5%

Vietnam

1,824

1,830

+0.3%

Colombia

858

858

+/-0%

Indonesia

636

642

+0.9%

Ethiopia

435

441

1.4%

Honduras

420

390

-7.2%

India

310,2

329,1

+6.1%

Mexico

243

273

+12.3%

Peru

262,8

270

+2.7%

Uganda

288

255

-11.5%

Guatemala

216

216

+/-0%

Nicaragua

152,4

140,4

-7.9%

China

132

138

+4.5%

Malaysia

126

120

-4.8%

Cote d’Ivoire

102

108

+5.9%

Costa Rica

78

82,5

+5.8%

Tanzania

78

75

-3.9%

Papua New Guinea

52,5

54

+2,8%

Thailand

39

42

+7.7%

El Salvador

39

39

+/-0%

Kenya

45

39

-13.4%

Venezuela

35,1

36

+2.6%

Laos

27,6

28,5

+3.3%

Philippines

25,5

27

+5.9%

Cameroon

21

21

+/-0%

Others

135,9

135,3

-0.4%

Total

10,470

10,147,8

-3.1%

FAS/USDA

 

View more information:

price chart Arabica coffee beans CBOT

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Coffee
Jun 12, 2019
WASHINGTON DC. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service has recently issued the coffee annuals for Tanzania, Nicaragua and Ethiopia as well as Mexico. The export figures are mainly on the rise.
Coffee
Mar 17, 2018
Rains in Karnataka seen for a good coffee crop.
Alerts and Regulations
Jan 30, 2018
Experts say that a record crop in 2018 can help the country to regain lost shares in the world market. Global supply to exceed demand.