Coffee: Exports are on the rise
June 12, 2019 at 2:55 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
90% of coffee beans exported from Tanzania
FAS expects production to decline by nearly 4% to 1.25 million bags in MY 2019/20. Last year’s production amounted to 1.3 million bags. Problems are adverse weather conditions, poor farming and a decline in interest in farming. In addition, as much as nearly 90% of the coffee beans produced in Tanzania are exported and the carry-over stocks are expected to shrink by 11% in 2019/20. The government is trying to reduce exports, but measures have so far only had very little impact.
In 2018 exports from Tanzania even rose by more than 18% with exports to Japan surging notably by 87.5%. Increases were also observed for Germany and Belgium. Contrary to this, exports to Ital declined by 50%. In MY 2019/20 exports are again to rise nominally.
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Leading export destinations for green coffee from Tanzania in 1,000 mt |
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|
Country |
2017 |
2018 |
Diff |
|
Japan |
480 |
900 |
+87.5% |
|
Italy |
660 |
480 |
-27.3% |
|
Germany |
240 |
300 |
+25% |
|
USA |
300 |
300 |
+/-0% |
|
Belgium |
120 |
180 |
+50% |
|
Finland |
60 |
60 |
+/-0% |
|
Others |
60 |
60 |
+/-0% |
|
Total |
1,920 |
2,280 |
+18.7% |
|
TCB, Global Trade Atlas (GTA) |
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Crisis in Nicaragua
Nicaragua is witnessing a crisis. The prices for coffee fell dramatically to USD 89 per bag (45 kg) in May. In addition, it is difficult for the growers to obtain credit and production is expected to decline substantially by 15%-20% in MY 2019/20. While the USDA estimates 2018/19 production at 2,387 million 60 kg bags, the 2019/20 production is only reckoned at 2,016 million 60 kg bags. Problem is the social and political crisis along with the flight of capital this entails. The crisis started in April 2018 and is expected to last, meaning that production should continue decline after 2019/20. The US was by far the most important export destination for Nicaragua in 2018. Germany and Japan ranged second and third.
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Leading export destinations for coffee from Nicaragua in 2018 |
|
|
Country |
mt |
|
USA |
71.359 |
|
Germany |
12.958 |
|
Belgium |
11.508 |
|
Italy |
6,629 |
|
Canada |
4,702 |
|
Sweden |
3,176 |
|
Others |
26,035 |
|
Total |
136,368 |
|
Central Bank of Nicaragua |
|
Record exports expected in Ethiopia
Government estimates state that production should range at 1,1 million mt in MY 2019/20. The USDA, however, considers a production of 441.000 mt as more realistic due a lack in modern input in farming and better price prospects for farming. For many farmers in the eastern parts of the country it is more attractive to switch to khat. The USDA figure, nevertheless, still presents an increase of more than 1% over the 435.000 mt produced in MY 2018/19 and is fostered by better weather conditions, improved prospects concerning diseases and pest and better services in some of the growing regions.
In MY 2018/19 exports are expected to climb to 238,800 mt and to reach a record of 240,000 mt in 2019/20. Ethiopia is strongly reliant on coffee bean exports and exported coffee worth USD 917 million in 2017/18. With 51.634 mt Germany was by far the most important export destination in 2018/18, followed by Saudi Arabia and Japan.
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Leading export destinations for green coffee from Ethiopia in mt |
|||
|
Country |
2016/17 |
2017/18 |
Diff |
|
Germany |
40,107 |
51,634 |
+28.7% |
|
Saudi Arabia |
36,313 |
37,406 |
+3% |
|
Japan |
25,861 |
23,461 |
-8.3% |
|
USA |
23,877 |
26,657 |
+11.6% |
|
Belgium |
20,770 |
17,410 |
-16.2% |
|
Sudan |
10,959 |
14,558 |
+32.8% |
|
Others |
73,288 |
62,450 |
-15% |
|
Total |
231,175 |
233,576 |
+1% |
|
Ethiopia Revenue Custom Authority |
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Production stimulated in Mexico
Coffee production is recovering from the coffee rust outbreak and is expected to reach 270,000-300,000 mt in MY 2019/20. Current estimates for 2018/19 have been revised downwards to 4 million bags. The industry has invested heavily in disease resistant plants and technical assistance. As much as 198,000 mt are to be exported in MY 2019/20. The US is by far the most important export destination with Belgium and Japan ranking second and third and Germany on fourth position.
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Leading export destinations for green coffee from Mexico in mt |
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|
Country |
2017/18 |
2018/19* |
|
USA |
66,686 |
11,369 |
|
Belgium |
20,330 |
995 |
|
Japan |
1,284 |
132 |
|
Germany |
5,875 |
66 |
|
Others |
28,396 |
6,295 |
|
Total |
122,571 |
18,857 |
|
Global Trade Information Services, Inc. World Trade Atlas Mexico Edition, April 2019 *As of December 2018 |
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