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Desiccated coconuts: demand exceeds supply

May 14, 2025 at 12:56 PM , Der AUDITOR
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MANILA/JAKARTA. Various factors are exacerbating the global shortage of goods on the coconut market. This is driving up prices for various products. China and the USA in particular are currently stocking up on goods.

Philippine crop down by up to 20%

As the experts at T.M. Duché report, prices for desiccated coconuts remain stable for the fifth week in a row. They are hovering at around USD 1.45-1.85/lb FOB on the world market. In the Philippines itself, prices have fallen slightly. Coconut oil prices are currently at USD 2,460-2,825/mt CIF Rotterdam, and international demand remains high. The situation is different on the Philippine domestic market, where buying interest is said to be low according to the market experts.

However, coconut oil exports have also fallen massively compared to last year, namely by a whopping 44.5% according to T.M. Duché. Exports of desiccated coconuts, which rose by 1.2% year-on-year, are better. However, the experts at JCP International predict that the coconut crop in the Philippines will be 20% lower this year than last year. The main reasons for this are adverse weather conditions, ageing trees and the effects of tropical storms.

China buys large quantities

The situation is similar in Indonesia, where unfavourable weather has also led to a smaller crop. According to JCP, a new export agreement with China is also ensuring that large quantities of fresh coconuts are delivered to the country, which is greatly reducing the supply for local Indonesian processors. According to CNN Indonesia, over 68,000 mt of coconuts worth USD 29.5 million have already been shipped to China in 2025. Exports in the January-March period alone have risen by a whopping 146%. This is naturally also driving up prices on the Indonesian domestic market. Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam are also struggling with a raw material shortage. Vietnam is also supplying large quantities to China, while in Thailand the high level of consumption due to tourism is playing a decisive role.

US buyers need to be quick

JCP International emphasises that buyers in the US are in a hurry to fill their stocks before the 90-day suspension of the tariffs introduced by Trump comes to an end. This is putting additional pressure on the global market and exacerbating the shortage. Shipments from the Philippines are said to be delayed by one to three months, while things are looking a little better in Indonesia. Demand on the global market is outstripping supply, and it is currently impossible to predict when this situation will improve.

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