Desiccated coconuts: export prices on the rise

March 12, 2025 at 12:34 PM , Der AUDITOR
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MANILA. After stagnating for several weeks, prices for Philippine desiccated coconuts have now risen slightly. Meanwhile, freight costs have become a little more favourable.

Coconut oil is also becoming more expensive

As the experts at T.M. Duché report, prices for desiccated coconuts on the export market have risen slightly and are now between USD 0.80 and USD 1.75/lb. Previously, prices had remained stable for about a month. Prices on the Philippine domestic market are also relatively high, which indicates good demand from the key export destinations of the USA, Europe and Asia. This is also reflected in exports, which rose by 36.4% in January compared to the same month last year. Coconut oil prices have also climbed again and are currently at USD 2,120-2,190/mt CIF Rotterdam. According to market experts, this increase is mainly due to the tight supply situation. There is currently little buying activity, which indicates that suppliers are holding back their goods in the hope of further price increases. Other tropical oils such as palm oil are also becoming more expensive.

T.M. Duché also reports that voices have been raised in the Sri Lankan domestic market complaining about low-quality coconut oil. This raises questions about quality control, which could also have an impact on trade. The Brazilian government, meanwhile, has decided to keep its share of biodiesel blends at 14%, which is likely to affect global demand for vegetable oils and thus indirectly affect coconut oil prices.

El Niño in 2025?

According to the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), freight costs have fallen again by 3% and currently stand at USD 2,541 for a 40' FCL. This is 76% below the pandemic peak of USD 10,377 reached in September 2021 and marks the lowest level since January 2024, but is still 79% higher than the pre-pandemic average of USD 1,420.

Some research models strongly suggest that the Pacific is warming to such an extent that a new El Niño phenomenon could develop by the end of 2025 or early 2026. However, this is not yet a cause for panic, as other analyses assume that the probability of a full El Niño event is relatively low and only around 20%.

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