Dried Fruit

Desiccated coconuts: overheated freight rates

June 10, 2024 at 12:12 PM , Der AUDITOR
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BRUSSELS/MANILA. Freight rate speculations are still a hot topic for desiccated coconuts. Yet, this price bubble may burst. Demand is not quite up to scratch in Europe.

Price bubble to burst

Freight rates are still the key issue for coconuts. Yet, the market may be in for a change in the second half of the year as TM Duché highlights. Demand is also crucial to market developments. Expectation is that freight rates for China to Europe will climb to USD 10,000 for a 40-foot container in July. According to traders FCL rates already range at USD 6,850-7,450 FOB Shenzhen for 40-foot containers and at USD 3,900-5,100 Shenzhen for 20-foot containers for shipments to European main ports.

Capacity shortages and an unexpected rise in demand are driving the current price increases. Analysts, however, predict that the price bubble will burst in the second half of the year as there is not enough robust demand to maintain the present high levels. Expectation is that high interest rates coupled with labour market trends will curb consumer spending.

Current quotations are, however, defying this outlook. Judging by the prices presented by the International Coconut Community desiccated coconuts are trading stubbornly firm in the Philippines and in Indonesia. Coconut oil is driving this trend as quotations have risen recently. Suppliers are stating that demand may outstrip supplies in the fourth quarter.

Desiccated coconuts

FOB

USD/mt

Philippines

2,021

Indonesia

2,050

International Coconut Community, 01/06/24

Downturn in EU imports

EU imports also highlight that demand is not quite what it could be. At 26,036 mt EU desiccated coconut imports have dipped to an eleven-year low, a lower import volume of 25,113 mt was last recorded in January through to the first week in June 2013. In terms of value imports range 14% lower than last year’s EUR 51 million (USD 54.7 million) at EUR 42.8 million (USD 46 million) , which marks a six-year low.

While shipments from the leading supplying countries the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka have witnessed a downturn as compared with last year, an upsurge can be observed in shipments from Brazil, Ghana and especially China along with Côte d’Ivoire and Thailand. At present the Netherlands account for 12% (12,100 mt) of EU imports, followed by Germany with 9% (4,840 mt) and Poland with 6% (1,650 mt).

EU desiccated coconut imports (kg)

Country

2023

2024

Diff.

Philippines

17,758,950

15,872,936

-10.6%

Indonesia

6,690,452

6,038,055

-9.8%

Sri Lanka

3,198,222

2,968,024

-7.2%

Brazil

52,405

284,319

442.5%

Ghana

166,831

208,371

24.9%

Malaysia

272,482

148,971

-43.3%

Vietnam

701,905

113,987

-83.8%

China

10

80,385

803,750%

Côte d‘Ivoire

25,640

67,451

163.1%

Thailand

28,726

63,514

121.1%

Others

127,136

190,391

49.7%

Total

28,999,683

26,036,404

-10.2%

DG Taxud Customs Surveillance system, 01/01-08/06
HS Code 08011100 Desiccated coconuts

 

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price chart, desiccated coconuts, Sri Lanka
price chart, desiccated coconuts, Indonesia
price chart, desiccated coconuts, Philippines 
price chart, coconut oil, Indonesia
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