Desiccated coconuts: overheated freight rates
June 10, 2024 at 12:12 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Price bubble to burst
Freight rates are still the key issue for coconuts. Yet, the market may be in for a change in the second half of the year as TM Duché highlights. Demand is also crucial to market developments. Expectation is that freight rates for China to Europe will climb to USD 10,000 for a 40-foot container in July. According to traders FCL rates already range at USD 6,850-7,450 FOB Shenzhen for 40-foot containers and at USD 3,900-5,100 Shenzhen for 20-foot containers for shipments to European main ports.
Capacity shortages and an unexpected rise in demand are driving the current price increases. Analysts, however, predict that the price bubble will burst in the second half of the year as there is not enough robust demand to maintain the present high levels. Expectation is that high interest rates coupled with labour market trends will curb consumer spending.
Current quotations are, however, defying this outlook. Judging by the prices presented by the International Coconut Community desiccated coconuts are trading stubbornly firm in the Philippines and in Indonesia. Coconut oil is driving this trend as quotations have risen recently. Suppliers are stating that demand may outstrip supplies in the fourth quarter.
|
Desiccated coconuts |
|
|
FOB |
USD/mt |
|
Philippines |
2,021 |
|
Indonesia |
2,050 |
|
International Coconut Community, 01/06/24 |
|
Downturn in EU imports
EU imports also highlight that demand is not quite what it could be. At 26,036 mt EU desiccated coconut imports have dipped to an eleven-year low, a lower import volume of 25,113 mt was last recorded in January through to the first week in June 2013. In terms of value imports range 14% lower than last year’s EUR 51 million (USD 54.7 million) at EUR 42.8 million (USD 46 million) , which marks a six-year low.
While shipments from the leading supplying countries the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka have witnessed a downturn as compared with last year, an upsurge can be observed in shipments from Brazil, Ghana and especially China along with Côte d’Ivoire and Thailand. At present the Netherlands account for 12% (12,100 mt) of EU imports, followed by Germany with 9% (4,840 mt) and Poland with 6% (1,650 mt).
|
EU desiccated coconut imports (kg) |
|||
|
Country |
2023 |
2024 |
Diff. |
|
Philippines |
17,758,950 |
15,872,936 |
-10.6% |
|
Indonesia |
6,690,452 |
6,038,055 |
-9.8% |
|
Sri Lanka |
3,198,222 |
2,968,024 |
-7.2% |
|
Brazil |
52,405 |
284,319 |
442.5% |
|
Ghana |
166,831 |
208,371 |
24.9% |
|
Malaysia |
272,482 |
148,971 |
-43.3% |
|
Vietnam |
701,905 |
113,987 |
-83.8% |
|
China |
10 |
80,385 |
803,750% |
|
Côte d‘Ivoire |
25,640 |
67,451 |
163.1% |
|
Thailand |
28,726 |
63,514 |
121.1% |
|
Others |
127,136 |
190,391 |
49.7% |
|
Total |
28,999,683 |
26,036,404 |
-10.2% |
|
DG Taxud Customs Surveillance system, 01/01-08/06 |
|||
View more
- price chart, desiccated coconuts, Sri Lanka
- price chart, desiccated coconuts, Indonesia
- price chart, desiccated coconuts, Philippines
- price chart, coconut oil, Indonesia
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