Desiccated coconuts: Philippine crop will be smaller
May 6, 2025 at 4:50 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Strong demand stabilises coconut oil prices
As the experts at T.M. Duché report, international prices for desiccated coconuts have remained stable for the third week in a row, hovering around USD 1.45-1.85/lb FOB. Trade is being kept going mainly by strong exports. On the Philippine domestic market, prices have even fallen slightly; however, processors had hoped for stronger price declines, which will probably not materialise until later in the year.
The situation is different for coconut oil prices, which, unlike most other vegetable oils, are experiencing a price upswing. According to the market experts, prices here are averaging USD 2,600/mt CIF Rotterdam, sometimes even higher depending on the supplier. The rising prices here are mainly due to strong demand meeting a short supply.
Lower crop prospects
Market analysts currently expect yields in the Philippines to be lower this year – they currently anticipate a decline of up to 20% compared to last year. The coconut palms were exposed to severe stress due to the El Niño weather phenomenon in 2024, which is also making itself felt this year. T.M. Duché also reports shortages of raw materials in some processing factories, although this may be due to both the shortage of goods and the high prices.
Producing countries draw consequences
Meanwhile, The Straits Times reports that the shortage of coconut products is also being felt in Malaysia. This is said to have been particularly noticeable during the Muslim festival of Eid at the end of Ramadan, as coconut milk, for example, the basis for many national dishes, was difficult to obtain. Here too, the shortage is attributed to the adverse weather conditions in the producing countries. According to The Straits Times, the Philippines and Indonesia are already considering consequences such as export restrictions in order to guarantee better supply. In Indonesia, prices have already risen by 150% recently, and in Sri Lanka they have doubled. The experts also report that global demand for coconut products is steadily increasing as it acts as a healthy plant-based and lactose-free alternative for various foods. The USDA's forecast that coconut oil stocks will be at a four-year low by the end of the 2024/25 season fits in with this.
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