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Desiccated coconuts: uncertainty dominates the market

June 4, 2026 at 8:58 AM , Der AUDITOR
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MANILA. The coconut sector faces numerous challenges in the event of an El Niño phenomenon. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to cause considerable uncertainty. Freight costs are rising further.

Growing risks for coconut production

The likelihood of an El Niño event continues to rise. Current models predict a 79% probability that the weather phenomenon will develop between June and August 2026 and persist until early 2027. For the coconut industry, the focus is less on direct crop losses and more on potential impacts on plant development. Delayed flowering times, stress during fruit set, and lower rainfall in key growing regions could affect production. Added to this are potential challenges regarding the energy and water supply to processing plants. The greatest impact on supply is expected primarily for the end of 2026 and the year 2027, according to the experts at T.M. Duché in their latest report.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a source of uncertainty

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to cause considerable uncertainty. Shipping traffic remains disrupted, whilst the future course of relations between the US and Iran remains uncertain. Should the restrictions persist, costs for fuel, insurance and transport could rise significantly, according to T.M. Duché. This would also have an impact on the Philippines, where higher fuel prices are placing an additional strain on logistics and production costs.

Export prices remain stable

Export prices for desiccated coconuts have now remained stable for 15 weeks, according to the market experts, whilst prices on the domestic market have risen again compared with last week. Compared with other coconut products, the coconut oil market has recently performed less strongly. The price advantage that coconut oil previously held over palm kernel oil has thus diminished significantly. This suggests a more cautious outlook for short-term price trends in the oil segment.

According to the Drewry World Container Index, freight rates for trade routes between Asia and Europe have risen for the fourth consecutive week. For Philippine exporters shipping to Europe via Far East routes, this means they should secure freight space for July and August now and should not assume that lower coconut oil prices will fully offset logistics inflation, according to T.M. Duché.

On the European spot market, however, quotations for desiccated coconuts have in some cases fallen significantly since April and currently stand at EUR 2,550/mt FCA EMP for high-fat, fine desiccated coconuts from Indonesia.

Desiccated coconuts

Quality, origin

EUR/mt

High fat, fine, Indonesia

2,550

High fat, medium, Indonesia

2,850

High fat, fine, Philippines

2,950

Trade sources; FCA EMP

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price chart, desiccated coconuts, Sri Lanka
price chart, desiccated coconuts, Indonesia
price chart, desiccated coconuts, Philippines 
price chart, coconut oil, Indonesia
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