Macadamias: crop forecast revised downwards

Revised crop forecast

The forecast for the 2026 Australian macadamia crop has been revised downwards by the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) to 56,888 mt of in-shell macadamias at 3.5% moisture content, or 61,000 mt at 10% moisture content. The adjustment is based on updated industry data following the June crop assessment and is slightly lower than the initial forecast from March. That forecast stood at 59,080 mt at 3.5% moisture content, or 63,350 mt at 10% moisture content. Despite the revision, the 2026 crop will still be significantly higher than the 2025 crop of 43,800 mt.

AMS CEO Ben Baldwin explains: “The 2026 crop has been highly variable, with results differing considerably between regions, farms and varieties.” He adds: “Overall production is expected to exceed last year’s crop, although the increase has not been as substantial in all areas, and many orchards are continuing to recover from the impacts of several consecutive wet seasons.”

Varying conditions across growing regions

In Bundaberg, Australia’s largest macadamia-growing region, around 90 to 95% of the harvest has been completed. Favourable conditions there have enabled the harvest to progress well and ensured high nut quality. By contrast, persistent rainfall has delayed the harvest in parts of northern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland, particularly in the Northern Rivers, Gympie and Glass House Mountains regions. The harvest is still underway there.

Ben Baldwin says: “Weather conditions have varied significantly across the growing regions this season.” He goes on to explain: “While Bundaberg has enjoyed relatively favourable harvest conditions, ongoing rainfall in southern production regions has slowed harvest and increased the risk of quality losses where nuts have remained on the orchard floor for extended periods.” Conditions during flowering and fruit development were generally favourable in most growing regions. Pollination and fruit set were good. However, early flowering and low fruit drop did not lead to an earlier start to the harvest everywhere.

The kernel yield was lower than expected in several regions at the start of the season, but improved as the harvest progressed. Smaller nut sizes in some varieties continued to affect the kernel yield.

As the harvest is not yet complete in parts of New South Wales and south-east Queensland, the final production figures are not yet available. The Australian Macadamia Society intends to publish the final crop figures for 2026 once the harvest is complete later this year.

Kenya is turning to macadamias to diversify its agriculture

Dr. Chris Kiptoo, Principal Secretary for the National Treasury, has called on farmers in Kenya to reduce their reliance on corn cultivation and instead grow higher-value crops such as macadamias and avocados. According to him, diversifying agriculture is the best way to increase household incomes and improve the economic prosperity of communities. The Governor of Elgeyo Marakwet, Wesley Rotich, also spoke in favour of switching to higher-value crops such as macadamias. Greater diversification could improve agricultural productivity and incomes, according to the Kenya News agency.

EU imports significantly higher

EU macadamia imports since the start of the year have risen by an impressive 27.5% compared with the same period last year. South Africa remains the main supplier, with a moderate increase of 2.3% to 2,096 mt, followed by Kenya, which increased its shipments to the EU by a whopping 81.7% to 1,283 mt. Australia, China and Vietnam, in that order, also supplied significantly more macadamias to EU countries than in the first half of 2025.

The largest buyer within the EU is the Netherlands, which has increased its imports by 41.8% to 2,000 mt of macadamias. Germany ranks second, with an increase of 39.4% and a volume of 1,370 mt. The average import price of EUR 10.51/kg is just under 5% lower than last year’s figure; however, due to the higher import volume, the import value rose by 21.5% compared with the same period last year to just under EUR 49.71 million.

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