Macadamias: large crops expected

Situation on the world market is changing

The macadamia market started 2026 with stable prices. This was largely due to low stock levels from last year’s crop, as well as tight supply following the significantly smaller 2025 crop in key producing countries such as South Africa and Australia. Whole macadamia kernels, in particular, were in short supply, whilst demand remained stable; this is reported by the experts at ofi in their latest market update.

However, the market situation is changing with the start of the 2026 harvest. A significantly higher supply is expected over the next two to three months as crops in the main producing countries increase. At the same time, there is uncertainty as to whether demand – particularly from China – will keep pace with the growing supply.

China abolishes import duties on South African macadamias

South Africa is expected to have a significantly larger crop in 2026 than in the previous year; estimates currently stand at 93,000-95,000 mt of in-shell macadamias (NIS). However, persistent heavy rainfall in the main growing regions is causing challenges in terms of harvesting, processing and quality. Demand from China remains a further source of uncertainty. The removal of Chinese import duties on South African macadamia in-shell nuts and macadamia kernels is having a positive effect. This is likely to boost buying interest.

Exports remain a key factor in Kenya

Initial crop estimates in Kenya are better than expected. Sufficient rainfall has helped the nuts to develop, and harvesting is set to begin shortly in some regions. Exports remain a key influencing factor. Kenya had banned the export of in-shell macadamia nuts in favour of domestic processing. Any changes to this regulation could affect the supply of macadamia kernels in the coming weeks.

Positive outlook in Australia

In Australia, too, a significantly higher crop is expected for 2026, estimated at 56,000-58,000 mt NIS. Improved flowering and the increasing age of the plantations are supporting the crop outlook. According to initial field reports, the nuts are developing well; however, the final crop volume and quality will still depend on weather conditions during the harvest. Farmgate prices are in line with last year’s levels and are being supported by the continued strong demand for Australian macadamia kernels. At the same time, the weaker US dollar against the Australian dollar is putting pressure on export prices, according to ofi.

And the Australian macadamia industry continues to grow: according to the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS), the acreage now covers 47,659 hectares with over 15 million trees. This represents an increase of more than 2,200 hectares (+5%) compared with last year. Over the last ten years, the acreage has doubled. Around 38,500 hectares (81%) of the land is already of productive age, whilst just under 9,000 hectares consists of younger plantations that will contribute to increased production in the future.

With over 20,000 hectares, the Bundaberg region remains Australia’s largest macadamia-growing region, accounting for 44% of the total macadamia acreage. At the same time, it recorded the strongest growth in acreage, with an increase of around 2,000 hectares. In tropical Queensland, the acreage grew by 17%, or more than 400 hectares, whilst Maryborough saw an increase of just under 100 hectares. Overall, Queensland accounts for 65% of Australia’s macadamia acreage, whilst New South Wales accounts for 35%. The AMS also points out that regional changes include both new plantings and clearings: in the Northern Rivers region, 408 hectares were newly planted, whilst at the same time 496 hectares of existing plantations were cleared.

Global price trends

In the short term, international prices will continue to be supported by low stock levels and limited supply. However, as the harvest progresses and availability increases, a gradual decline in prices is expected, particularly for lower-grade macadamia kernels. According to ofi’s market experts, future price trends will depend largely on the actual crop volume, the quality of the crop and demand.

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