Mustard seeds: drastic decline in production in Canada
September 1, 2021 at 3:48 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Total supplies down by a third
The mustard seed market for the 2021/22 season does not look nearly as rosy as many market players had hoped. In June, StatCan had already revised its cultivation forecast from the beginning of the year, and now the experts are following suit once again. The production volume, which was 99,000 mt in the 2020/21 season, is estimated to be only 78,000 mt in the new season. This represents a year-on-year decline of 21% and is a full 41% below the first estimates for the new season, which had initially been 133,000 mt. Although the acreage was noticeably increased to 124,000 ha (2020/21: 104,000 ha), yields of 0.71 mt/ha are significantly below those of last year. As the new season will start with low carry-over stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates total stocks at only 111,000 mt, almost 33% less than last season.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2019/20 vs 2020/21 |
2020/21 vs 2021/22 |
||||
|
Area sown (ha) |
161,000 |
104,000 |
-35.4% |
104,000 |
124,000 |
19.2% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
155,000 |
101,000 |
-34.8% |
101,000 |
110,000 |
8.9% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.87 |
0.98 |
12.6% |
0.98 |
0.71 |
-27.6% |
|
Production (mt) |
135,000 |
99,000 |
-26.7% |
99,000 |
78,000 |
-21.2% |
|
Imports (mt) |
7,000 |
6,000 |
-14.3% |
6,000 |
8,000 |
33.3% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
214,000 |
165,000 |
-22.9% |
165,000 |
111,000 |
-32.7% |
|
Exports (mt) |
112,000 |
112,000 |
0.0% |
112,000 |
75,000 |
-33.0% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
42,000 |
28,000 |
-33.3% |
28,000 |
31,000 |
10.7% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
61,000 |
25,000 |
-59.0% |
25,000 |
5,000 |
-80.0% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
700 |
885 |
26.4% |
885 |
950 |
7.3% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
||||||
Prices rise by 7%
Meanwhile, Rayglen experts report that heavy rains and cool temperatures have slowed crop development. This has also led to the below-average yields reported by farmers who have already started harvesting. The exact price development remains uncertain for the time being, but circumstances suggest price increases. StatCan expects that prices could be about 7% higher than last season.
Hardly any carry-over stocks
Canadian exports had held at a stable level of 112,000 mt in 2019/20 and 2020/21, thanks to consistently good demand from the US. However, due to the massive production declines in the 2021/22 season, StatCan now also expects significant export declines to as low as 75,000 mt, with the US and EU remaining the most important customers.
Imports to Germany down by more than a quarter
Mustard seed imports to Germany declined by a good quarter in the 2020/21 season. Russia remains the most important supplier, even though imports here have fallen by a good 10%. The declines in shipments from Ukraine (-48.5%), Canada (-25.9%), Estonia (-33.3%) and Kazakhstan (-81.8%) are even more significant. In contrast, German mustard seed imports from the Czech Republic (+37.1%) and Poland (+184.5%) increased significantly.
|
Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt |
|||
|
Country |
2019/20 |
2020/21 |
Diff. |
|
Russia |
16,087 |
14,462 |
-10.1% |
|
Ukraine |
12,740 |
6,559 |
-48.5% |
|
Canada |
3,523 |
2,612 |
-25.9% |
|
Estonia |
1,443 |
963 |
-33.3% |
|
Czech Republic |
474 |
650 |
37.1% |
|
Poland |
174 |
495 |
184.5% |
|
Kazakhstan |
1.207 |
220 |
-81.8% |
|
Others |
414 |
397 |
-4.1% |
|
Total |
36,062 |
26,358 |
-26.9% |
|
Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Jun *12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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