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Mustard seeds: drastic decline in production in Canada

September 1, 2021 at 3:48 PM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. Once again, StatCan has significantly reduced production estimates for the 2021/22 season, as yields are expected to be considerably lower than last season. Consequently, Canadian exports are also expected to decline sharply.

Total supplies down by a third

The mustard seed market for the 2021/22 season does not look nearly as rosy as many market players had hoped. In June, StatCan had already revised its cultivation forecast from the beginning of the year, and now the experts are following suit once again. The production volume, which was 99,000 mt in the 2020/21 season, is estimated to be only 78,000 mt in the new season. This represents a year-on-year decline of 21% and is a full 41% below the first estimates for the new season, which had initially been 133,000 mt. Although the acreage was noticeably increased to 124,000 ha (2020/21: 104,000 ha), yields of 0.71 mt/ha are significantly below those of last year. As the new season will start with low carry-over stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates total stocks at only 111,000 mt, almost 33% less than last season.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2019/20 vs 2020/21

2020/21 vs 2021/22

Area sown (ha)

161,000

104,000

-35.4%

104,000

124,000

19.2%

Area harvested (ha)

155,000

101,000

-34.8%

101,000

110,000

8.9%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.87

0.98

12.6%

0.98

0.71

-27.6%

Production (mt)

135,000

99,000

-26.7%

99,000

78,000

-21.2%

Imports (mt)

7,000

6,000

-14.3%

6,000

8,000

33.3%

Total supplies (mt)

214,000

165,000

-22.9%

165,000

111,000

-32.7%

Exports (mt)

112,000

112,000

0.0%

112,000

75,000

-33.0%

Domestic consumption (mt)

42,000

28,000

-33.3%

28,000

31,000

10.7%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

61,000

25,000

-59.0%

25,000

5,000

-80.0%

Avg price in CAD/mt

700

885

26.4%

885

950

7.3%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Prices rise by 7%

Meanwhile, Rayglen experts report that heavy rains and cool temperatures have slowed crop development. This has also led to the below-average yields reported by farmers who have already started harvesting. The exact price development remains uncertain for the time being, but circumstances suggest price increases. StatCan expects that prices could be about 7% higher than last season.

Hardly any carry-over stocks

Canadian exports had held at a stable level of 112,000 mt in 2019/20 and 2020/21, thanks to consistently good demand from the US. However, due to the massive production declines in the 2021/22 season, StatCan now also expects significant export declines to as low as 75,000 mt, with the US and EU remaining the most important customers.

Imports to Germany down by more than a quarter

Mustard seed imports to Germany declined by a good quarter in the 2020/21 season. Russia remains the most important supplier, even though imports here have fallen by a good 10%. The declines in shipments from Ukraine (-48.5%), Canada (-25.9%), Estonia (-33.3%) and Kazakhstan (-81.8%) are even more significant. In contrast, German mustard seed imports from the Czech Republic (+37.1%) and Poland (+184.5%) increased significantly.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Country

2019/20

2020/21

Diff.

Russia

16,087

14,462

-10.1%

Ukraine

12,740

6,559

-48.5%

Canada

3,523

2,612

-25.9%

Estonia

1,443

963

-33.3%

Czech Republic

474

650

37.1%

Poland

174

495

184.5%

Kazakhstan

1.207

220

-81.8%

Others

414

397

-4.1%

Total

36,062

26,358

-26.9%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Jun

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

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