Pecans: challenging outlook for US industry

Strong April exports

At 24.4 million pounds (in-shell basis) monthly pecan shipments stood 30% higher than the 18.8 million pounds shipped in April 2025. Although retail and grocery sales clearly were the main driver, shelled meat exports surged by as much as 87% to 3.1 million pounds as compared with the 1.7 million pounds noted in April last year.

Total in-shell basis shipments also rose to 280.3 million pounds, which is 13% up on last year’s 247 million pounds. Here too, retail and grocery shipments account for the lion’s share. In-shell exports rose by 28%, from 5.6 million pounds in September 2024 to April 2025 to 7.2 million pounds in the same period in the current season. China is the main destination for US in-shell pecans by far with exports rising sharply by 66% from 3.6 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 6 million pounds in 2025/2026. Other destinations include Mexico (688,024 pounds), Morocco (356,349 pounds) and Japan (93,860 pounds), Lebanon (82,366 pounds), Turkey (44,092 pounds) and Canada (8,000 pounds).

Shelled meat exports have declined by 11% this season so far. While exports to Canada witnessed a 1% uptick, shipments to Israel and the Netherlands have declined sharply. Germany is sporting the largest rise of 56% and Saudi Arabia the sharpest decline of 62%. At 65.9 million pounds the net open position stood more than twice as high as the 31.2 million pounds registered in April last year.

Challenges for 2026 crop

As the Pecan South Magazine reports the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has driven up the prices for nitrogen fertiliser to such a high degree that pecan growers will probably be more selective in applying this. Unusually high temperatures have been reported throughout spring in all pecan growing regions from California to Florida. Wildfires are also an issue in Georgia and Florida. Although rain has brought some relief to the orchards in central Texas and Oklahoma many places are still confronted with lingering drought and inconsistent soil moisture. Despite drought conditions prevailing further West, growth has been supported by cooler temperatures and some showers along with irrigation. Rain will be crucial for nut set and early development in all states. Projections presented at the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress predict a flat production.

Difficult to compete with Mexico

US industry representatives are concerned by the fact the Mexico has increased exports, especially to the UK and the EU, whereas US pecans are mainly shipped to the domestic market. The National Pecan Federation has even sent a letter to the US Trade Representative calling the Administration to support a more balanced and competitive environment for the industry.

In an updated version of the trade agreement signed on 22 May, Mexico and the EU are, in fact, trying to work more closely together, also in the agricultural sector by eliminating bilateral tariffs and introducing new mechanisms to resolve trade disputes. Yet, Mexico and the 27 EU member states still need to ratify the agreement. As Fresh Plaza highlights pecans have become Mexico’s largest fresh produce export line to the EU. According to Eurostat data EU pecan imports from Mexico surged from close to zero in 2016 to EUR 75.9 million (USD 88.1 million) in 2025. Expectation is that Mexico’s production will range 5% lower than last year.

Boost in Southern Hemisphere

As China slashed the import tariff rates from 53 countries in Africa from 7% to zero in May this should boost South Africa’s exports. The harvest is just about to start here and more than 90% of exports are destined to China. Demand is high in China and domestic production is expected to surge by 89% this year.

Prospects are also highly encouraging in South Africa as newly planted trees are turning productive with the total planted area currently spanning 57,000 ha. Projection is that this year’s production will rise by 7%.

Good weather conditions have also helped this year’s harvest in Argentina, where the crop is of excellent quality and volume. Production will range 10% higher than last year.

Global production should rise by 3% this year with Brazil sporting the largest near triple increase. Total supply should also rise by 4%, from 329,470 mt in 2025/2026 to 344,010 mt in 2026/2027.

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