Pecans: dent in production
March 27, 2026 at 8:58 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Downward revision
While the INC still anticipated a 5% year-on-year rise in global in-shell production to 314,930 mt in November 2025, this figure has now been revised downwards. At 294,350 mt the total estimate now stands 3% lower than last year’s 301,940 mt. Total supplies have dropped by 4%, from 373,690 mt in 2024/2025 to 357,670 mt in 2025/2026. Kernel production has also fallen by 2% this season and total kernel supplies from 186,795 mt in 2024/2025 to 179,280 mt in the current season.
As the USDA did not issue a production estimate in October due to the government shutdown the INC has left the estimate of 129,500 mt unchanged for the USA. Since much of the carry-ins were allocated to 2024 contract commitments and the Mexican crop witnessed a considerable downturn prices have surged quite a bit this season yet are projected to remain firm now.
Drought has been an issue in Mexico in recent years and has impacted the 2025/2026 crop, which is projected 27% lower than last season. Harvesting was largely complete in mid-January.
South Africa, by contrast, witnessed a record crop with production rising sharply by 34%. Strong demand in China driven by the disagreements with the USA have, however, depleted stocks and low carry-overs are expected. Prospects for this year’s crop are mixed as young orchards turning productive will drive up output, yet concerns have also been voiced about rain in parts of the country that may have a limited impact.
China’s production has also surged by 71% this season. Yet, the figure had to be revised downwards from the November estimate of 6,500 mt. While heavy rain in the bloom and harvest period impacted the 2025 crop, this year’s production may climb to as high as 12,000 mt, if the weather is favourable.
|
Global pecan production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
120,200 |
129,500 |
7.7% |
|
Mexico |
129,600 |
95,000 |
-26.7% |
|
South Africa |
37,500 |
50,250 |
34.0% |
|
China |
3,500 |
6,000 |
71.4% |
|
Australia |
2,540 |
3,600 |
41.7% |
|
Brazil |
2,000 |
3,500 |
75.0% |
|
Argentina |
3,000 |
3,000 |
0.0% |
|
Others |
3,600 |
3,500 |
-2.8% |
|
Total |
301,940 |
294,350 |
-2.5% |
|
South African Pecan Nut Producers Association (SAPPA), Associaçᾶo Brasileira de Nozes, Castanhas e Frutas Secas, Argentine Pecan Committee and other INC sources |
|||
|
Global pecan production, kernel basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/25 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
60,100 |
64,800 |
7.8% |
|
Mexico |
64,800 |
47,500 |
-26.7% |
|
South Africa |
18,750 |
25,400 |
35.5% |
|
China |
1,750 |
3,000 |
71.4% |
|
Australia |
1,320 |
1,870 |
41.7% |
|
Brazil |
900 |
1,750 |
94.4% |
|
Argentina |
1,500 |
1,500 |
0.0% |
|
Others |
1,800 |
1,750 |
-2.8% |
|
Total |
150,920 |
147,570 |
-2.2% |
|
South African Pecan Nut Producers Association (SAPPA), Associaçᾶo Brasileira de Nozes, Castanhas e Frutas Secas, Argentine Pecan Committee and other INC sources |
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