Pecans: difficult supply situation
November 25, 2025 at 9:18 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
25% slump in exports
According to the American Pecan Council’s (APC) Position Report for September the new export season witnessed a slow start. Total exports, in fact, slumped by 25% on last year to below 4 million pounds. Although shipments to Canada are 12% down, the country still accounts for roughly one third of US pecan exports. Shipments to North America as a region are also 15% down on last year at 1.179 million pounds with shipments to Mexico starting the season off with a 46% slump.
By contrast, exports to Israel show an 8% uptick. Yet, exports the Middle East stand 6% lower at 1.138 million pounds. Exports to Asia have also seen a noted decline of 37% to 572,400 pounds as shipments to South Korea have dipped by 21%. Exports to China have winessed a 50% downturn.
Shipments to the Netherlands are 18% down. Lithuania stands out as exports to here have risen by 50%. This is, however, not enough to turn the general tendency in Europe as a region. Shipments range 39% lower than last year at 1.079 million pounds.
|
US pecan exports (pounds) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Canada |
1,244,352 |
1,098,840 |
-11.7% |
|
Israel |
738,000 |
798,000 |
8.1% |
|
South Korea |
446,030 |
354,000 |
-20.6% |
|
Netherlands |
466,080 |
383,700 |
-17.7% |
|
Saudi Arabia |
381,600 |
252,000 |
-34.0% |
|
Lithuania |
168,000 |
252,000 |
50.0% |
|
UK |
218,400 |
161,280 |
-26.2% |
|
Lebanon |
0 |
88,094 |
- |
|
France |
321,600 |
84,000 |
-73.9% |
|
China |
164,400 |
82,200 |
-50.0% |
|
Others |
1,149,300 |
415,140 |
-63.9% |
|
Total |
5,297,762 |
3,969,254 |
-25.1% |
|
American Pecan Council, 01/09-30/09 |
|||
Tight global supplies
At 12.923 million pounds receipts may have stood 81% higher in September 2025 than in September 2024. Yet, inventories were 7% smaller than last year at 141.451 million pounds and ACP highlights that in-shell inventories remained at a six-year low. As Mexican-based supplier Pecaninis report yields are also notably low in Texas and Georgia with the US crop estimated 6% lower than last year at 125,000 tonnes. Expectation in Mexico is that production will decrease by 15%. Mexico’s water scarcity and the hurricane season in Georgia are a big worry for the industry. As South Africa and other producing countries will only add relatively small volumes global supplies are very much limited this season.
Strong demand and low cold-storage supplies are adding fuel to fire. China has recently been active in South Africa but may turn to Mexico and the USA in the fourth quarter or in early 2026. US kernel prices already soared well above the average export prices available in Mexico and South Africa in 2024/2025, ensuring that these two countries gained market shares in the EU. At present, suppliers are offering 10 kg boxes of Fancy Mammoth Halves from the 2525 crop in Argentina at USD 13.65/kg FCA Rotterdam.
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