Pecans: tight supplies and high potential
May 20, 2025 at 11:17 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Tight supplies and production
Global production and supplies are tight for pecans. Not only will production drop by 4% on an in-shell basis and by 6% on a kernel basis in 2025/2026 but supplies will also face similar downturns. They will drop by 5% on an in-shell basis, from 373,840 mt in 2024/2025 to 355,458 mt in 2025/2026, and by 6% on a kernel basis, from 189,396 mt in 2024/2025 to 178,236 mt in 2025/2026. Issue is that historically every pecan is consumed and that the industry tends to operate on tight supplies. Advice for buyers is to act quickly as supplies will remain low in the next 18 months.
The production decline will exclusively be driven by downturns in the leading producing countries of the US and Mexico. US production will range an estimated 6% lower than in the current season as Hurricane Helene destroyed many older trees in September 2024 with around 25% of the producing regions permanently affected. Mexico will lose its pole position to the US as in-shell production is projected to decline by 6% and kernel production by 17%. Trouble is that no new trees have been planted in recent years, that water is in very short supply and that input costs are high.
Contrary to this, production will rise in all other countries. Most notably in South Africa where output will climb by 7% to 40,000 mt. Triple digit increases will also be witnessed in China and Brazil. Although China is actively planting new trees, production cannot cover demand, which is rising fast.
|
Global pecan production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
122,879 |
115,000 |
-6.4% |
|
Mexico |
127,100 |
110,000 |
-13.5% |
|
South Africa |
37,500 |
40,000 |
6.7% |
|
China |
3,500 |
8,500 |
142.9% |
|
Brazil |
2,000 |
5,000 |
150.0% |
|
Argentina |
3,000 |
3,600 |
20.0% |
|
Australia |
2,540 |
3,434 |
35.2% |
|
Others |
3,600 |
3,400 |
-5.6% |
|
Total |
302,119 |
288,934 |
-4.4% |
|
COMENUEZ, USDA, South African Pecan Nut Producers Association, Argentine Pecan Committee, Brazilian Nuts and Chestnuts Association, and other INC sources |
|||
|
Global pecan production, kernel basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
61,400 |
57,500 |
-6.4% |
|
Mexico |
66,100 |
55,000 |
-16.8% |
|
South Africa |
18,750 |
20,000 |
6.7% |
|
China |
1,750 |
4,700 |
168.6% |
|
Brazil |
900 |
2,500 |
177.8% |
|
Argentina |
1,500 |
1,800 |
20.0% |
|
Australia |
1,321 |
1,786 |
35.2% |
|
Others |
1,800 |
1,700 |
-5.6% |
|
Total |
153,521 |
144,986 |
-5.6% |
|
COMENUEZ, USDA, South African Pecan Nut Producers Association, Argentine Pecan Committee, Brazilian Nuts and Chestnuts Association, and other INC sources |
|||
High costs
As the round table discussion highlighted at the INC Congress, pecans are much more expensive to produce than walnuts, almonds or pistachios since yields are much lower and maturation periods longer. The current economic climate is making this situation worse as trade tensions prevail, inflation is on the rise and interest rates are driving up input costs for all tree nuts.
Tariffs may have not disrupted pecan sales as significantly as for other tree nuts as the round table highlights, yet US producers emphasise that demand has shifted in China. Higher import tariffs for US products have driven up the costs for US pecans here with buyers shifting to other origins such as South Africa and Mexico. Last week, the US and China agreed to lower the previously escalating tariffs of 145% for Chinese imports in the US and of 125% for US imports in China to 35% and 10% respectively for a period of 90 days. Much will now depend on negotiations and a final deal. Yet, analysts agree that confidence has been shattered and that even if the two countries reach an amicable agreement it will take years to rebuild trust.
Emerging markets
The US, Mexico and China account for a stunning 85% of global consumption. Europe and the Middle East account for the remaining 15%. With snack innovations emerging in China and consumer awareness growing, there is a high potential for marketing pecans throughout the world. In Europe, Germany is a particularly exciting market as awareness for pecans has grown by 10% to 70% between 2022-2024. Snacking and packaging campaigns are also underway in the UK.
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