Pine nuts: tight supplies impact consumption in China
March 27, 2026 at 10:33 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Global production below 100,000 mt
In March, the INC sharply revised the global production estimate downwards for pine nuts. While global in-shell production was still estimated at 126,490 mt in November, this figure now stands at 84,590 mt, marking a sharp 51% drop on last year. Driver is the stunning 54% production decline in Asia, whereas Mediterranean output has risen by 16% this season. Total supplies have, however, declined by a more moderate 32% from 166,600 mt in 2024/2025 to 112,800 mt in 2025/2026. Global kernel production also ranges 43% lower than last year at 25,762 mt with production in Asia projected 45% lower at 23,810 mt and Mediterranean production 17% higher than last year at 1,952 mt. Total kernel supplies range 31% lower at 35,619 mt.
Concerns about demand in China
Although in-shell production has slumped by as much as 73% in China, the China Chamber of Commerce points out that this balances sluggish consumption. With kernel prices rising steadily towards the end of last year and the start of this year consumer demand declined sharply. This in turn slowed the upsurge in prices. Expectation is that supplies will remain tight and prices high in the first half of 2026. Consumer demand will only recover slowly.
|
Global pine nut production (mt) |
|||
|
Asia (Pinus koraiensis, P. sibirica, P yunnanensis, P. gerardiana) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
China |
111,500 |
30,000 |
-73.1% |
|
North Korea |
30,000 |
20,000 |
-33.3% |
|
Russia (Siberia) |
15,000 |
11,000 |
-26.7% |
|
Afghanistan |
2,300 |
7,800 |
239.1% |
|
Pakistan |
800 |
5,200 |
550.0% |
|
Mongolia |
7,000 |
2,000 |
-71.4% |
|
Subtotal |
166,600 |
76,000 |
-54.4% |
|
Mediterranean (Pinus pinea) |
|||
|
Turkey |
5,450 |
7,600 |
39.7% |
|
Italy |
625 |
500 |
-20.0% |
|
Portugal |
500 |
60 |
-88.0% |
|
Spain |
500 |
50 |
-90.0% |
|
Others |
330 |
380 |
15.2% |
|
Subtotal |
7,405 |
8,590 |
16.0% |
|
Total |
174,005 |
84,590 |
-51.4% |
|
China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs and other INC sources, in-shell basis |
|||
|
Global pine nut production (mt) |
|||
|
Asia (Pinus koraiensis, P. sibirica, P yunnanensis, P. gerardiana) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
China |
27,875 |
7,500 |
-73.1% |
|
North Korea |
7,500 |
5,000 |
-33.3% |
|
Russia (Siberia) |
4,450 |
4,000 |
-26.7% |
|
Afghanistan |
1,180 |
4,000 |
239.0% |
|
Pakistan |
410 |
2,650 |
546.3% |
|
Mongolia |
1,750 |
660 |
-62.3% |
|
Subtotal |
43,165 |
23,810 |
-44.8% |
|
Mediterranean (Pinus pinea) |
|||
|
Turkey |
1,280 |
1,750 |
36.7% |
|
Italy |
125 |
100 |
-20.0% |
|
Portugal |
100 |
12 |
-88.0% |
|
Spain |
100 |
10 |
-90.0% |
|
Others |
70 |
80 |
14.3% |
|
Subtotal |
1,675 |
1,952 |
16.5% |
|
Total |
44,840 |
25,762 |
-42.5% |
|
China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs and other INC sources, kernel basis |
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