Pistachios: „I would expect trade with Russia to grow”

Which were the main difficulties faced by the pistachio market in 2025? What has changed compared to the last two years?

The pistachio market in 2025 has been dealing with alternate bearing cycles, localised drought and water‑use restrictions in major producing regions such as the western United States and Iran, and strong demand from Asia and Europe that has kept export commitments high and limited spot availability.

In Turkey, the low crop quantity due to 2025 being an off-year, higher sorting and processing costs and high financing costs have caused higher prices, hence demand for Turkish pistachio has dropped. 

Geopolitical tensions are an ongoing issue.

Geopolitical tensions always have an effect on trade routes as some markets become unavailable, like for example the war between Iran and Israel has caused disruptions in Iran’s pistachio exports. It lasted a month or so and shipments resumed quickly and caused only temporary demand for Turkish pistachios.

How did the import tariffs on shipments to the USA impact the pistachio trade?

Turkey’s exports to the USA are limited to Turkish and Arabic sweets production, a niche market. As Turkey is one of the lowest tax applied countries to the USA, I would not expect the trade being much affected by the tariffs. On the other side of the trade, Turkey mainly used its free‑trade zones to re‑export US and Iranian pistachios to third markets. In September 2025, Turkey eased its pistachio import rules and lifted some additional tariffs on US agricultural products, including pistachios. No actual USA cargo has been observed in local market since then, but as expected and aimed by the government, this move has caused a cap on price increases which stabilised the prices at the second half of November. Even Turkish baklava producers have been complaining about high pistachio prices.

Were there any noticeable drawbacks on the trade with Russia when it comes to pistachios? Or did Turkish traders actually benefit from the trade restrictions imposed by Western countries?

Turkey’s pistachio exports to Russia have been small in quantity and are not much affected by the sanctions as Russia always can import from a cheaper origin like Iran. However, I hear Russian buyers show more interest in Turkish pistachios and are trying to explore the prices and varieties with various suppliers. However, due to the high price level of this season, actual reflections on export quantities have not been realised yet. I would expect trade with Russia to grow in the coming years as Turkey-Russia trade keeps increasing due to good political relations and geological proximity.

Once again commodity prices have risen significantly in many markets, some being at all-time highs or close to. Inflation and higher production costs are leaving their mark; pistachio prices are very high as well. Do you think market players will just have to accept this as the new normal?

Pistachio prices are being supported by high irrigation and labour costs, regulatory pressure on water use, and a broad global trend of strong demand for nuts so the underlying cost base remains high in the coming years. Turkey has its own challenges such as extremely high financing costs, the central bank policy interest rate being 39%, very high energy and labour costs, hence I would not expect any reduction in export prices in the coming years as the government doesn’t allow the currency to depreciate in the free market either.  However large carry‑over stocks in Turkey can have a balancing effect to the market if next year’s crop quantity will be higher than this year.

Looking at the current market situation, what challenges might the pistachio market face in the upcoming year 2026?

In 2026 the Turkish market will likely face more water‑scarcity and high input costs. Additional challenges include quality risks from weather shocks, rejects from markets due to aflatoxins and high pesticide usage, buyer resistance to further price increases, which could push some snack and confectionery manufacturers toward using other types of nuts.