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Rapeseed: Expected output could go even lower

March 21, 2018 at 5:54 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Farmers chose to plant less for the upcoming harvest. However, the weather could further cut expected output.

BULGARIA. Reducing planted acreages for the upcoming harvest, farmers directly cut the prospects for а higher output. However, it seems it will not be only man-made decisions that will affect aggregate production during the upcoming harvest; the weather could have a significant impact, as well.

Rapeseed: optimistic outlook grows into a lightly pessimistic one

During the mild Winter, which could be characterized by early Spring-like characteristics for the majority of its period, sufficient showers fell throughout the country, allowing the accumulation of plenty moisture in fields. By the middle of the month, farmers look with optimism for the upcoming future since the general conditions of their crops appeared really good. However, too much water reserves create conditions where fields become too damp for fieldwork at the beginning of the spring season. This time is crucial for doing husbandry work and if belated, potential yield will be definitely affected.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 – 16.03.2018)

          units in MT

Beginning availability

25,000

Aggregate output

458,110

Imports

32,655

Domestic consumption

51,200

   oil & biodiesel production

51,200

Exports to the world

423,461

   to EU markets

389,965

   to rest of the world

33,496

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Looking from the current point of time, a reliable forecast for April could not be drawn. Anyhow, farmers are inclined to expect higher probability of showers during the month, which will further increase the availability of moisture. The general concern is that the availability of too much water within a field will lead to fallen-through acreages. Crops will be in their vegetation processes, but because of higher levels of moisture, the intake of vital nutrients will be difficult. In addition, subsequent showers could easily wash away nutrients or soak them lower into soil layers, which will make it either very difficult or impossible for crops to absorb them. The beginning of the spring season has disfavored local farmers, who remain in the clutches of weather forces.

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