Walnuts: challenging season ahead
March 24, 2026 at 11:52 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
February slump for inshells
Monthly in-shell exports slumped by 25% in February to as little as 101 mt as compared with the 135 mt shipped in February 2025. By contrast, monthly shelled walnut shipments rose by 26% to 414 mt as opposed to the 327 mt exported in February last year. The monthly in-shell equivalent stood at 991 mt, 17% higher than the 849 mt shipped in February 2025. Total in-shell equivalent exports have risen by 28% to 174,401 mt on the 136,696 mt noted in the same period in 2024/2025.
In-shell exports rise by 26%
Chile’s in-shell exports to top destination India have dipped by 17%. At 30,496 mt exports to Asia/Oceania also stand 15% lower than last year’s 35,650 mt. By contrast, shipments to Turkey have risen sharply by 61% and have risen more than tenfold to the United Arab Emirates. Shipment volumes to the Middle East/Africa as leading export region have more than doubled on last year’s 17,080 mt to 34,937 mt. Italy is the leading export destination in Europe, to where shipments have risen by an impressive 32% to 23,990 mt as opposed to last year’s 18,096 mt. Peru is the only American country listed in the top ten. Shipments to here only amount to 2,270 mt, which is 7% up on last year’s 2,131 mt. Total in-shell exports stand 26% higher than last year.
|
Walnut exports, Chile, inshell (mt) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
India |
33,968 |
28,185 |
-17.0% |
|
Turkey |
10,672 |
17,189 |
61.1% |
|
UAE |
1,289 |
14,589 |
1,031.8% |
|
Italy |
8,384 |
10,596 |
26.4% |
|
Spain |
3,145 |
4,146 |
31.8% |
|
Germany |
1,378 |
3,855 |
179.8% |
|
Morocco |
3,969 |
1,563 |
-60.7% |
|
Peru |
1,093 |
1,169 |
7.0% |
|
Vietnam |
146 |
1,138 |
679.5% |
|
Lithuania |
1,645 |
1,038 |
-36.9% |
|
Others |
7,269 |
8,115 |
11.6% |
|
Total |
72,958 |
91,583 |
25.5% |
|
ChileNut, 21/03-28/02 |
|||
Shelled walnuts exports 32% up
Chile’s total shelled walnut exports have also risen by an impressive 32% with Europe as the main destination by far. Shipments to Europe have, in fact, surged by 41% to 31,593 mt as compared with the 22,353 mt recorded in 2024/2025. While the two leading trading partners, the Netherlands and Germany, are showing stunning gains of 162% and 95% respectively, exports to Spain range 12% lower. Brazil and Ecuador are two of the three non-European countries in the top ten chart. Exports to Brazil are 9% up on last year but have slumped by 48% to Ecuador. Shipments dipped by 7% to America as a region, from 4,813 mt in 2024/2025 to 4,499 mt in 2025/2026. The volumes shipped to the Middle East/Africa have, by contrast, risen sharply by 30% to 1,714 mt as compared with the 1,320 mt registered last year with the United Arab Emirates as the main driver. In Asia/Oceania the subtotal is flat at 704 mt.
|
Walnut exports, Chile, shelled (mt) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Netherlands |
3,019 |
7,920 |
162.3% |
|
Germany |
3,619 |
7,061 |
95.1% |
|
Spain |
5,433 |
4,783 |
-12.0% |
|
Italy |
3,218 |
3,859 |
19.9% |
|
Brazil |
2,044 |
2,226 |
8.9% |
|
France |
1,818 |
2,040 |
12.2% |
|
Portugal |
599 |
820 |
36.9% |
|
UK |
771 |
921 |
19.5% |
|
UAE |
575 |
732 |
27.3% |
|
Ecuador |
1,312 |
678 |
-48.3% |
|
Others |
6,784 |
7,470 |
10.1% |
|
Total |
29,192 |
38,510 |
31.9% |
|
ChileNut, 21/03-28/02 |
|||
Challenging season anticipated
With the harvest underway industry estimates for the year’s crop range at 160,000-165,000 mt as local supplier Invernada reports. This would present a 6-9% decline on last year’s crop, which the INC officially pegged at 175,000 mt in March. Growing conditions and nut development looked good in mid-March. Yet the heatwave in February may impact yields to a limited extent and abundant rainfall during the harvest season would be bad news.
Higher transportation and insurance costs coupled with longer transit times due to the Middle East conflict will also render shipments more expensive next season. Attention is also set on Dubai, which functions as an important trading hub for the region. If this route is no longer reliable this may have a direct impact on demand, especially in India, where high duties for Chilean and US walnuts currently prevail.
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