Walnuts: China gears up for customers
September 23, 2025 at 10:43 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Higher prices in China
In China, the bearing area is almost the same as last year in the main producing areas of Xinjiang, Hebei and Sichuan and Yunnan. Many exporters have started collecting new crop volumes. The prices for inshell Xinjiang walnuts 185 range at USD 2,000-2,100/mt. As most of the 2024 inventory has been cleared selling prices are relatively high. Inshell shipments started in September, and 185 kernel sales will begin at the end of September or start of October.
The mixed Xinfeng variety is already available, and kernels started to be shipped in mid-September. Yet, the Xin2 variety will only be available towards the end of September, and shipments will start in the second half of October. Expectation is also that the price for Yunnan kernels will be on the market in late September. Prices will be higher as current rates as no stocks are available. Advice for buyers is to wait for arrivals to pick up according to Farmerland.
Production better than last year in Ukraine
In the recently published “Tree Nuts Annual” for Ukraine the Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts production at 100,500 mt in MY 2025/2026, which started in September. This is nominally up on the estimated 98,640 mt produced in 2024/2025. These figures, however, present rough estimates rather than official statistics as walnuts are mainly grown by individuals or small family farms in Ukraine. Production is on the decline as old trees are being chopped down without being replaced in such private settings. Estimate is that these small producers account for as much as 80% of the bearing tree area. Commercial production is also witnessing a downturn as long-term investments are lacking due to Russia’s hostile invasion and farmers are switching to annual crops, which offer faster returns.
Internationally it is also becoming increasingly difficult for Ukrainian exporters to compete with large global players such as the USA, China or Chile or Mexico. Quality was also an issue in MY 2024/2025 due to a lack of moisture prompting exports to dip to their lowest in 15 years. Quality should, however, improve in the current marketing year, which will boost exports. Harvesting starts at the end of September and will continue until the end of October.
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Walnuts, production, supply and distribution, Ukraine |
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|
Inshell basis |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Area planted (ha) |
15,400 |
14,900 |
-3.2% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
15,400 |
14,900 |
-3.2% |
|
Bearing trees (1,000) |
3,190 |
3,220 |
0.9% |
|
Non-bearing trees (1,000) |
490 |
340 |
-30.6% |
|
Total trees (1,000) |
3,680 |
3,560 |
-3,3% |
|
Beginning stocks (mt) |
480 |
510 |
6.3% |
|
Production (mt) |
98,640 |
100,500 |
1.9% |
|
Imports (mt) |
28 |
50 |
78.6% |
|
Total supply (mt) |
99,148 |
101,060 |
1.9% |
|
Exports (mt) |
20,938 |
35,000 |
67.2% |
|
Domestic consumption |
77,700 |
65,600 |
-15.6% |
|
Ending stocks (mt) |
510 |
460 |
-9.8% |
|
Total distribution (mt) |
99,148 |
101,060 |
1.9% |
|
USDA FAS, 17/09/25 |
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