Walnuts: discouraging estimates
September 5, 2024 at 9:35 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Production to take a 19% hit
For California, the USDA’s Objective Measurement Report came with a bang. Reports about low chilling hours were circulating for months and a production decline of around 10% was anticipated. In the newly issued September estimates production is, however, expected to take a 19% dip to 670,000 tons as compared with last year’s record crop. This also marks a five-year low with 2019 last witnessing a smaller production of 657,000 tons. Bearing acres are also 4% down from 2023.
|
California walnuts, inshell |
|||
|
Acreage and production |
2023 |
2024 |
Diff. |
|
Bearing acres |
385,000 |
370,000 |
-3.9% |
|
Trees per acre |
81.0 |
81.6 |
0.7% |
|
Bearing acre/US ton |
2.14 |
1.81 |
-15.4% |
|
Total production (US ton) |
824,000 |
670,000 |
-18.7% |
|
USDA NASS 2024 California Walnut Objective Measurement Report |
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Quality also impacted
Low chilling hours are, however, not the only player at work. The USDA has not only officially confirmed that chilling hours were low but also that the weather conditions in spring and summer were far from ideal. Heavy spring rains thereby prompted blight to show in some walnut orchards. In summer, California was also confronted with drought and record-high temperatures, which forced growers to step up irrigation. Samples indicate that the nut quality will not be quite as good as last year.
Changing market dynamics
Discouraging as these figures are, it should, however, also be noted that the objective estimates tended to range way below the final production figures between 2020 and 2023. Last year, for instance, the objective estimate only projected production at 760,000 tons, whereas the final production hit a record of 824,000 tons. If this trend persists, not everything will be quite as bad as anticipated. Yet, the crop size and quality will take a hit. The current outlook has certainly taken US suppliers by surprise with some stating that they need time to absorb the data. For others the US figures show a clear shift in market dynamics with upbeat exporters in China starting to ship the first batches of this year’s promising crop for which conditions were ideal.
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