Walnuts: high reliance on Middle East
March 25, 2026 at 12:15 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Middle East as key driver
US walnut shipments hit a record in February. The main driver is the high demand for inshells in the Middle East and Africa. Total monthly inshell shipments surged by a stunning 77% to 221,894 pounds as compared with the 125,033 pounds shipped in February 2025. Domestic shipments thereby climbed by 30% to 9,877 pounds as opposed to the 7,570 shipped in February last year and export by an incredible 80% to 212,017 pounds.
Grand total shipments for the season also stand a 76% higher with domestic shipments rising by 31% and exports by 81%. Exports to Turkey as leading destination have nearly tripled. Shipments to the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Lebanon and Egypt are also showing extortionate hikes. At 131 million pounds shipments to the Middle East/Africa, in fact, range more than four times higher this season than last year’s 32 million pounds.
By comparison, Italy’s modest gain of 6% appears rather unexciting. Shipments to Spain are even showing a 39% downturn and to Germany a 63% slump. Exports to Europe as a region have declined by 13% from 51 million pounds recorded in September to February 2024/2025 to 44 million pounds in the current season.
India is also sporting a 12% decline. As shipments to other destinations in Asia, such as Vietnam, have considerably risen exports to Asia and the Pacific Rim only stand 1% lower than last year at 33 million pounds.
|
US walnut shipments, inshell (1,000 pounds) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Turkey |
22,424 |
88,620 |
295.2% |
|
Italy |
31,909 |
33,682 |
5.6% |
|
India |
28,661 |
25,332 |
-11.6% |
|
UAE |
4,139 |
18,219 |
340.2% |
|
USA domestic |
7,570 |
9,877 |
30.5% |
|
Iraq |
220 |
6,619 |
2,800.0% |
|
Spain |
9,193 |
6,529 |
-29.0% |
|
Vietnam |
2,104 |
4,986 |
137.0% |
|
Lebanon |
1,409 |
4,442 |
215.3% |
|
Egypt |
728 |
3,328 |
357.1% |
|
Germany |
7,712 |
2,849 |
-63.1% |
|
Others |
8,964 |
17,411 |
94.2% |
|
Export Total |
117,463 |
212,017 |
80.5% |
|
Grand Total |
125,033 |
221,894 |
77.5% |
|
California Walnut Board, 01/09-28/02 |
|||
Kernel shipments also up
Monthly kernel shipments showed a 23% rise from 45,098 pounds in February 2025 to 54,909 pounds in February 2026. Domestic shipments thereby increased by 10% from 13,806 pounds to 15,163 pounds and exports by 27% from 31,292 pounds to 39,746 pounds.
Grand total shipments stand 7% higher for the season with domestic shipments declining by 6%, yet exports rising by 16%. Exports to Germany, as leading destination, have notably risen by 66%. Destinations in Europe are showing mixed trends with shipments to Spain 8% down, yet 4% up to the Netherlands and 1% down to the UK and 9% up to Italy. At 113 million pounds subtotal shipments to Europe range 28% higher than last year’s 88 million pounds.
North America is the second most important market. Yet, domestic shipments and exports to Canada have declined with the subtotal for the region ranging 6% lower than last year’s 110 million pounds at 104 million pounds.
Exports to Japan and South Korea are also down. The subtotal for Asia/Pacific Rim has dipped by 10% from 48 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 43 million pounds in the current season.
Shipments to the United Arab Emirates have more than doubled and exports to the Middle East/Africa have gained by an impressive 74%, from 9 million pounds last year to 16 million pounds this year.
|
US walnut shipments, kernels (1,000 pounds) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
USA domestic |
100,996 |
94,596 |
-6.3% |
|
Germany |
37,525 |
62,176 |
65.7% |
|
Spain |
21,237 |
19,564 |
-7.9% |
|
Japan |
17,578 |
16,682 |
-5.1% |
|
Korea |
18,877 |
14,359 |
-23.9% |
|
Netherlands |
10,998 |
11,484 |
4.4% |
|
UK |
8,670 |
8,663 |
-1.2% |
|
Canada |
8,296 |
7,975 |
-3.9% |
|
Italy |
5,543 |
6,022 |
8.6% |
|
UAE |
2,220 |
5,893 |
165.5% |
|
Israel |
6,401 |
5,855 |
-8.5% |
|
Others |
21,492 |
25,730 |
19.7% |
|
Export Total |
158,746 |
184,404 |
16.2% |
|
Grand Total |
259,743 |
278,999 |
7.4% |
|
California Walnut Board, 01/09-28/02 |
|||
US exports to Middle East at stake
As various media outlets report Dubai is an important trading hub for US walnuts. With disruptions continuing in the Gulf region due to the Iran war suppliers are mainly keeping an eye out for rising costs and longer transit times as well as demand in the Middle East as such. As Invernada reports US vessels bound for the United Arab Emirates were stranded after the war started on 28 February and shipments had to be rerouted to alternative routes such as Oman. Another aspect to consider is that if Dubai loses its positions as a reliable trading hub for US and Chilean nuts this will have a direct impact on competition with China. India is a key market here. Yet, the country has recently added to the uncertain trading climate by slapping assessment rates on shipments from the USA and Chile after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Trump’s punitive tariffs in February.
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