Walnuts: impressive surge in US exports

Stunning rises for US in-shell walnuts

April brought impressive gains for US in-shell walnut shipments. Monthly exports, in fact, rose more than fivefold to 23.7 million pounds as compared with only 4.3 million pounds noted in April 2025. Domestic shipments also more than doubled from 1.3 million pounds in April 2025 to 2.9 million pounds in April 2026. At 26.6 million pounds grand total shipments stood more than five times higher than the 5.6 million pounds recorded in April last year.

Total shipments for the season also show impressive rises with exports more than twice as high as last year, domestic shipments 48% up and grand total shipments more than doubling. Turkey tops the chart with a near fivefold rise in shipments from the US. Other destinations in the Middle East and Africa such as the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco, are showing equally impressive gains. Shipments to the region as a whole have, in fact, risen fivefold this season to 172.9 million pounds as opposed to last year’s 34.7 million pounds.

Exports to Italy have gained by a much lower 14% this season. By contrast, shipments to Spain range 18% lower. Exports to Europe as the former leading region have dropped by 4% this season, from 53.6 million pounds recorded in 2024/2025 to 51.4 million pounds in the current season.

Vietnam is the only Asian export destination in the top ten chart with shipments 81% up. At 36.4 million pounds exports to Asia and the Pacific Rim stand 5% higher than last year’s 34.5 million pounds. Exports to North America have gained by 45% this season so far, from 10.6 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 15.4 million pounds in 2025/2026.

Less impressive rises for kernels

Kernel shipments are not displaying quite as impressive gains, Monthly shipments only rose by single digits with domestic shipments 5% up at 15.2 million pounds as compared to last year’s 14.4 million pounds, exports 8% up at 33.9 million pounds as compared to 31.5 million pounds and grand total shipments 7% up at 49 million pounds as compared to 45.9 million pounds.

Grand total shipments for the season stand 9% higher than last year with exports 15% up and domestic shipments 2% down. Shipments to North America as a region range 1% lower than last year’s 141.4 million pounds at 139.9 million pounds with exports to Canada trending in a similar direction.

Germany has retained its position as leading export destination with a 34% hike. Exports to Spain, the Netherlands and the UK along with Italy are also up. Sub-total shipments to Europe have risen by 22%, from 127.5 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 155.4 million pounds in 2025/2026.

By contrast, shipments to Japan and South Korea have declined, whereas exports to Taiwan have risen by 12%. Exports to Asia and the Pacific Rim are 2% down at 67 million pounds as compared with last year’s 68 million pounds.

Israel is the only destination in the Middle East featuring in the top ten with a 6% rise. Yet, US kernel shipments to the Middle East and Africa have surged by 72% this season so far, from 11.2 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 19.3 million pounds in 2025/2026.

Global production to be relatively flat in 2026/2027

California’s 2025/2026 crop has clearly exceeded expectations. While USDA NASS initially forecast production at 710,000 short tons (644,101 mt) in September 2025, final receipts stand 14% higher at 809,445 short tons (734,316 mt) according to the Crop Acquisition report issued by CWS. Of this amount, 789,913 short tons (716,597 mt) are conventional walnuts and 19,532 short tons (17,719 mt) organic walnuts.

As nut broker Cardassilaris highlights the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) has pegged California’s 2026/2027 in-shell walnut crop at 669,500 mt and total US supply at 782,900 mt at the recent Congress in Macao in May. Expectation, therefore, is that output will decline by around 9% with carry-ins available. Chile’s crop is projected at 165,000 mt, around 6% lower than last year’s 175,000 mt, as Cardassilaris further states. In addition, global in-shell production will reach 2,874,800 mt in 2026/2027, which is 2% up on the figure of 2,829,100 mt for 2025/2026 issued by the INC in March.

China as export driver

China, however, is the player to look out for. According to INC estimates issued in March the country is the leading producing country with output standing at 1.5 million mt in 2025/2026. At the INC congress in May, it emerged that China exported 203,283 mt of in-shell walnuts and 164,186 mt of shelled walnuts in the calendar year of 2025. Anticipation is that China’s share will continue to grow in the export market.

Walnut kernels are trading a bit higher in China. The prices for shipments to Europe have risen by USD 20-23/mt since last week.

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