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Walnuts: outdated production figures?

April 17, 2025 at 9:23 AM , Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO. Exports of US walnuts remain in decline this season. One of the reasons for this is the drop in production of around 27%.

US exports down by 34%

In March 2025, the US exported 16,252 mt of shelled and unshelled walnuts, which is less than half of what was exported in the same month last year (March 2024: 36,266 mt). However, domestic deliveries also fell by 25% to 6,835 mt. In total, 23,087 mt of shelled and unshelled walnuts were shipped domestically and overseas – a decline of a whopping 49% compared to the same month last year. At 5,552 mt, shipments to Germany increased by 10%, while still accounting for around 24% of total deliveries. Japan was also one of the main buyers in March 2025 with 2,500 mt (-10% year-on-year), followed by Spain (-38% to 1,474 mt), the Netherlands (-32% to 1,226 mt) and Korea (-29% to 1,139 mt). Meanwhile, shipments to Turkey slumped by 98% year-on-year from 6,812 mt to 160 mt.

US walnut shipments have also declined significantly over the season as a whole. Between September 2024 and March 2025, a total of 197,618 mt of shelled and unshelled walnuts were shipped domestically and overseas, a decline of around 34%. Not only did exports fall by a whopping 37% to 141,539 mt, but deliveries to the domestic market were also around 27% down on the previous year at 56,079 mt. In addition to the domestic market, a large proportion of shpments went to Europe, with Germany (-4% to 25,908 mt), Italy (-16% to 17,337 mt) and Spain (-2% to 15,277 mt) among the most important customers. However, countries such as India (+25% to 13,048 mt) and Turkey (-80% to 10,366 mt) also purchase large quantities of walnuts from the US, with the latter drastically reducing imports this season.

US walnut shipments*, in mt

Land

2023/24

2024/25

Diff.

USA

77,003

56,079

-27.2%

Germany

27,093

25,908

-4.4%

Italy

20,651

17,337

-16.0%

Spain

15,528

15,277

-1.6%

India

10,438

13,048

25.0%

Japan

9,666

10,473

8.4%

Turkey

50,822

10,366

-79.6%

Korea

10,711

10,161

-5.1%

Netherlands

7,856

7,017

-10.7%

Canada

5,239

5,058

-3.5%

Others

116,156

26,894

-76.8%

Total

300,751

197,618

-34.3%

California Walnuts; 01/09-31/03
*domestic and overseas; shelled and unshelled

27% smaller crop in the USA

According to the latest report from California Walnuts, US production in 2024/2025 will amount to 548,271 mt of in-shell walnuts, of which 534,837 mt will be conventionally grown, with organic walnuts accounting for an estimated 13,434 mt. This means that the current crop is a whopping 26.7% behind last year's result. While the nuts are predominantly of good quality, the kernels were significantly smaller than in previous years due to the unsettled weather in winter and spring 2024. Together with the carry-over stocks from the 2023/2024 season, 635,000 mt of in-shell walnuts would therefore be available on the market this season.

However, it is interesting to note that the US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service also published a report on the 2024 crop data on 10 April 2025. In this report, US walnut production is still listed at 607,814 mt. This figure is congruent with the estimates from September 2024 and has apparently not been adjusted since then.

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