Nuts

Walnuts: stocks to melt away

July 26, 2021 at 11:08 AM , Der AUDITOR
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REUS. The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council anticipates an 85% slump in end-of-season stocks in 2021/2022. This is mainly driven by China's below-average carry-over stocks. While global inshell walnut production will only range nominally higher than in 2020/2021 at 2.31 million mt, consumption is expected to rise by 9% to 2.46 million mt. Spot market prices in Europe are expected to take a jump at the start of the season.

Uncertain outlook in China

Drought is an issue in China, the USA and Chile. The winter drought in China's Yunnan is, for instance, expected to cap nut sizes. Although China's output is estimated firm at 1.1 million mt in 2021/2022, extreme weather conditions in spring may adversely impact production. At 60,000 mt, China's carry-over stocks will also range below average at the end of the season. Labour shortages are fostering an additional degree of uncertainty. Prices should therefore range firm here. Drought coupled with altering bearing and the removal of older trees has also impacted US production, which is set to decline by more than 5% to 675,000 mt this year. Although production is expected to rise by more than 15% in Chile to 131,171 mt, it will nevertheless fall 10% short of expectations due to drought. Consumption is definitely up.

Exports in all three main producing countries are highly encouraging. China succeeded in shipping 71,282 mt overseas in the first quarter, which is 270% up on the same period last year. California Walnuts also report that US exports ranged 16% higher than last season at 588,615 mt between 30 September 2020 and 31 May 2021. Chile already sold as much as 70% of supplies in May according to Chilenut. Global consumption is, therefore, expected to rise to 2.46 million mt in 2021/2022. As total supplies are estimated at 2.49 million mt this will prompt ending stocks to slump by as much as 85% to 26,700 mt in 2021/2022 as opposed to the 172,380 mt that will be available at the end of the current season.

Walnut production, inshell, in mt

Country

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

China

1,100,000

1,100,000

0.0%

USA

711,009

674,810

-5.1%

Chile

131,171

150,000

14.4%

Ukraine

85,320

106,000

24.2%

Turkey

31,000

37,200

20.0%

France

37,000

37,000

0.0%

India

35,000

37,000

5.7%

Iran

30,000

31,000

3.3%

Romania

36,300

30,000

-17.4%

Argentina

22,500

23,500

4.4%

Italy

19,800

23,500

18.7%

Moldova

13,750

19,000

38.2%

Australia

13,000

13,800

6.2%

Hungary

11,700

11,800

0.9%

Georgia

7,000

7,100

1.4%

Others

15,000

15,000

0.0%

Total

2,299,550

2,316,710

0.7%

INC July 2021

Firm market

Sport market prices in Europe have remained relatively firm over the last few weeks. US Tulare in-shell walnuts are trading at EUR 2.35/kg FCA Spain. New crop in-shell Chandler walnuts, 32+ mm, from Chile presently cost EUR 3.20/kg FCA Spain. As supplies are relatively low in Europe traders are expected to raise prices as soon as the new crop arrives.

Walnuts

Type

EUR/kg

US, inshell, Tulare, jumbo, 2020 crop

2.35

US, inshell, Chandler, jumbo, 2020 crop

2.45

Chile, inshell, Chandler, 32+ mm, 2021 crop

3.20

Chile, inshell, Chandler, 30-32 mm, 2021 crop

3.00

Chile, inshell, Serr, 30+ mm, 2021 crop

2.95

FCA Spain

 

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