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Wheat: Mounting exports on the background of high wheat supply in the region

August 28, 2017 at 2:07 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Competitive prices in the Black sea region support export activities. Prices are far away from rising.

SOFIA. Although harvest this year was belated and on a few occasions interrupted, mainly in the North regions of the country because of heavy rains, which extended the final stage of collecting the crop, the current rate of total exports – land and marine – are quickly advancing, leaving behind those of last year.

Wheat: exports are mounting on a weekly basis

The high quality crop of the recent harvest, sold at competitive prices, is boosting export activities. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 18th of August 2017, exports reached 1,054,659 mt; the number represents 18,37% of the most recent estimate for aggregate output of harvest 2017-18, which stood at 5,740,727 mt. The majority of exports (935,455 mt) went to EU markets while the rest (119,204 mt) were shipped to countries from the rest of the world.

Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 18.08.2017)

Carry over

   179,000 mt

Domestic output

5,740,727 mt

Domestic consumption

   215,600 mt

Exports to the world

1,054,659 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

In the realm of prices

Local market players are quite disillusioned that in the short-term, prices will experience a substantial upward move. The expected bumper crop in Russia this year will further influence export prices, on the background of an already high export activity from the country, which in turn will exert pressure on the other export countries within the Black sea region. The option for local market sellers is to glide on the bearish trend since prices might sink even further because of higher than expected supply of wheat within the Black sea region.

Wheat, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

milling wheat

0.142

feed wheat

0.135

EXW Bulgaria

 

 

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